Author: Hillary Kaufman

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Well, they are at it again.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and a host of other noted authorities have told us what we already knew: food costs continue to climb. Maybe not as fast as they were. But annual increases of around 10 percent still cause all of us a lot of angst. Is this the new norm?

Just how bad is it?

The BLS numbers regarding retail food price inflation really shouldn’t surprise anyone who buys food today. Food in March 2023 was 8.4 percent more expensive than food in March 2022, down from the 9.5 percent month-to-month increase seen in February.

Prices at the grocery store actually showed a slightly sharper decline, falling to “only” 8.4 percent after a February increase of 10.2 percent. It still sounds awful, unless you consider that annual food inflation peaked last summer at 11.4 percent.

The masochists among us can use the chart below to track where the cost increases hit us hardest. We’re all probably well aware of the headlines – eggs, cereals, beverages, all up sharply. 

Reading between the lines

The problem with statistics is – well, they are statistics. Cold, impersonal numbers and charts often don’t tell the story in a way we all can easily grasp and appreciate. But we all have a stake in these numbers. After all, U.S. consumers, government and businesses spent $2.12 trillion on food and beverages in 2021, at home and away from home.

We at Dirt to Dinner work hard to find the important news buried in all that data. But when we saw the latest round of numbers about food costs, we elected to look behind the numbers by revisiting some of the past reports we’ve done on the complicated food-price picture.

Back in June 2021, we picked up on some great reporting by the Toledo Blade that tracked the actual cost of a shopping cart containing 15 commonly purchased food products. The Blade captured the cost of the same items in 2003, 2008, and 2011.

We replicated the basket and added our own 2021 findings. We found a 10-year increase in the cost of the basket of 28.2 percent. We’re not gifted statisticians, admittedly. But the cost increase seemed pretty much in line with historic food price.

So what would it look like in 2023?  We conducted a quick survey to see how the cart costs lined up with the latest inflation figures. That same cart of groceries that cost us $44.96 in 2021 today clocked in at a hefty $55.61, or 23.6 percent more than just two years ago.

Big increases in prices of cereal products, sugary beverages, eggs, and coffee accounted for the largest share of the rise. Our quick look behind the numbers suggests that the dramatic events of the past three years managed to inflate our food costs almost as much as we saw in the entire 2011-20 decade.

By taking advantage of sales and promotions, however, we cut the cost of the 15 items by over $4, bringing the annual cost rise to an average of 7.3 percent. Our 2023 sample was significantly smaller than in 2021, so our findings can hardly be categorized as a rigorous statistical analysis. But as a snapshot of the price realities facing consumers, it seemed to align with the statistics provided by BLS and USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

Are commodity costs behind the continuing increase?

The big question that emerged for us at Dirt to Dinner had less to do with the hard numbers than the causes behind them. What’s keeping the inflation engine churning when it comes to our food?

One of the more frequent questions posed by consumers involves the cost of the commodities that fuel our modern food system. Prices for basic crops, notably food grains and feed grains, soybeans, and many other cornerstone commodities, remain high, by historical standards. But they have declined from the exceptionally high levels seen during the pandemic and the initial portion of the Ukrainian conflict.

All that aside, commodity costs are far from the only cost element in our food.

What else drives food cost inflation?

The world continues to increase production of essential commodities such as corn, soy, wheat, and palm. But as various USDA commodity reports and market analysts note, those increases are matched by equally significant increases in demand, with constant pressure on the level of available stocks to contend with disruptions to normal cropping patterns or trade needs. We are simply not likely to see production outpace consumption at the levels needed to bring commodity prices back to historically low levels.

For every dollar spent on food, where does it go?

According to an ERS analysis by the National Farmers Union (NFU), farmers receive only about 20 cents of the $4.49 cost of a two-pound loaf of bread. Overall, across all major food categories, the farmer’s share of each food dollar is estimated at 14.3 cents. That’s actually a lower share of the food dollar than the 15.5 cents received in 2020 – prior to the pandemic and Ukraine conflict.

The food dollar also includes costs for all steps along the marketing chain – obvious things such as basic and secondary processing, food manufacturing, packaging, transportation, storage, and distribution. But it also includes the cost of finance, advertising, insurance, and all the other “hidden” costs that go into moving food from dirt to dinner.

Every step in the chain is subject to the same economic pressures. Energy prices also remain relatively high. Freight rates, insurance costs, and added finance costs — all contribute to sustained upward pressure on food costs.

One commonly overlooked component of the food-dollar breakdown involves labor costs. ERS estimates that half of our food dollar goes to salaries, wages, or benefits of those across the food chain.  (In comparison, ERS estimates that energy costs represent only 3.2 cents of the same food dollar.)

BLS notes that overall U.S. wages and salaries increased by 4.5 percent in 2021 and another 5.1 percent in 2022 – almost double the annual increase seen in 2020. Increases in the labor-intensive food processing sector since 2020 have often eclipsed these levels.  As far back as November 2021, Jayson Luck of Purdue University reported substantial pay hikes already underway:

More recently, the United Food and Commercial Workers Union reported new spring 2023 contracts with more generous compensation elements, including a contract for a Heinz facility offering a 23 increase in wages and compensation spread over three years, and another Delaware vegetable processing plant offering a new three-year contract with annual 5 percent wage increases, some retroactive.

Add a pinch of uncertainty, too…

By any measure, rising labor costs continue to be a significant factor in food price inflation.

Add to all that some additional complications – most oriented around the simple power of uncertainty. How long will the conflict in Ukraine go on? What new conflicts may emerge that will affect food production and trade? Will the global economy enter a recession?

Which way will energy costs go? How will climate change affect global production of essential food commodities? Are production climate patterns and global trade flows undergoing a fundamental shift? Will requests for ESG practices increase costs to the consumer? How quickly can we use science intelligently to increase global productivity and still sustain, enhance, and protect our planet’s air, soil and water?

The Big Question: Cost or Investment?

The uncertainties hanging over the global food system seem daunting. And they are. But they aren’t insurmountable, and history suggests our food system has always remained flexible and agile. It continues to remain healthy overall and fully capable of meeting our rising food needs. But the price we pay for that food security may be changing. Higher food costs may be the fuel needed to keep the productive engine running.

Those in the food supply chain, from dirt to dinner, have been challenged over food costs – and rising profit reports – make several points about the future and the past. Reckless claims of “greed’ and “profiteering” ignore the fact that past food prices have been an exceptionally good bargain for consumers, they contend.

Also, increases in wages and salaries have helped offset – and in many years exceeded – the rate of food inflation. The latest data from BLS suggests a growing convergence of the rate of increase in food costs and average wages.

Furthermore, the sector continues to promote sales and promotions that eat into margins, while significant investments in new and better equipment and systems are needed every day.

Double-digit annual price increases are painful, especially following two decades of retail food price inflation that averaged just 2 percent per year. But smart shopping is still an important way to ease the pain.

Economists in the public and private sectors say the inflation rates should continue to drop. But a return to the 2 percent level of increase may not, and certainly not in the short term. As ERS put it in their Food Price Outlook for 2023:

Business leaders and many economists argue that higher earnings mean we can continue to develop our food system to meet the changing expectations of consumers, for more variety, convenience, healthy options, environmental protections, fair and responsible sourcing, and all the other demands of our progressive world.

Furthermore, they point out, consumers by and large have been willing to pay the costs of building and maintaining a food system to meet those expectations.

Government and numerous other private sector reports tend to support this line of argument. Consumers combat higher food costs in a variety of ways – by being more selective in the foods they put on the table, by looking more aggressively for store promotions and sales, by cutting back on spending on out-of-home dining, and by a host of other intelligent responses to higher costs.

Despite the continuing upward trend in prices, there’s no apparent imminent rebellion in the streets. Perhaps unconsciously, we as consumers may be coming to realize that higher food prices are as much an investment in our long-term food security as a day-to-day expense.

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I’m a naturally curious person, but sometimes life (read: kids) takes me off course. But recently, I seized the opportunity for a quiet weekend…and it was glorious. After a hike on an unseasonably warm February morning, I sat down to think about what to explore for my next D2D post. I grabbed a go-to snack of mine – a peanut butter & chocolate RxBAR – and tore off the wrapper.

But this time, instead of tossing the wrapper to begin chewing at that dense, doughy square, I gingerly pieced the wrapper back together. And there was my lightbulb: the ingredients so clearly and cleverly listed on the front of the package. Where are these ingredients from? How is this product made? And how does it get to my grocery store?

So begins my trek on where some of our favorite foods come from. Bon voyage!

RxBAR Protein Bar: Simple ingredients, complex sourcing

So here’s this beige, homogenized-looking bar, but its four ingredients are anything but. Each of these listed foods – dates, peanuts, egg whites, and chocolate – has a source. And from its source begins a journey to us, often with a few stops along the way.

For instance, the main ingredient in this protein bar is dates, which are commonly cultivated and packaged in the Middle East. The Middle East. Not some fabricated, gooey by-product made within RxBAR’s manufacturing facility. And because fresh dates are perishable, they must be cleaned and packaged close by and shipped directly to the U.S. facility for processing. I’m already feeling more globally connected😊

Next up are peanuts, grown and shelled in the southeastern U.S., followed by egg whites. Despite egg whites’ domestic roots, they have an interesting story to tell. Some food manufacturers, like RxBAR, have just a few product lines – none of which require the whole egg. All they need to make their products is egg white powder – a significantly cheaper, lighter, and less fragile product derived from whole eggs.

Separating and dehydrating eggs into discrete products occurs at an egg processing plant. The egg product then ships to the manufacturing facility for reconstitution and is added as an ingredient in its protein bar formula. If I were that humble egg white in that little egg at the beginning of this process, you better hope I had no idea of that long path ahead.

The last main ingredient, chocolate, requires us to go abroad once again – to the Ivory Coast. There, the cacao beans are picked, fermented, dried, packaged and exported to a U.S. processing facility for roasting and grinding before being sent to the manufacturing facility.

With all ingredients intact, the manufacturer also adds salt and other additives not listed on the wrapper to preserve freshness, modify color, and/or enhance flavor. In the case of RxBAR, the end product goes into a high-barrier film wrapper to withstand the next leg of its journey.

Because RxBAR is owned by Kellogg’s, it can utilize the parent company’s existing distribution network to get its product to grocery stores and other retailers across 15 countries. It’s incredible where this one simple bar has been, right?

Whole wheat bread: a lesson in distribution networks

My curiosity hasn’t even begun to be sated, though. Next? Let’s pick something domestically produced and seemingly straight-forward. How about the U.S.’s most popular wheat bread, Nature’s Own?

The Midwest U.S. is known for its production and global distribution of wheat and its derived products, like flour, wheat germ, gluten, yeast, starch, among others. So it’s no surprise that the wheat products in Nature’s Own 100% whole wheat bread are mostly grown in North Dakota, Kansas, and Colorado and then shipped and processed to at least 20 different states within the country.

Next up by weight is brown sugar. This is typically a mix of refined white sugar and molasses and probably sourced from sugar beets grown in North Dakota and Minnesota. Soybeans, grown and processed in the Midwest, create the next two ingredients via separate processing lines: soybean oil and lecithin.

What I found most interesting about this food product is not necessarily the ingredients, but the journey they take. Because Flowers Foods owns Nature’s Own as well as Wonder Bread, Dave’s Killer Bread, and Tastykake, the company utilizes its network of bakeries across the U.S. to manufacture these products.

If you think switching subway lines is hard, try adding in buses, taxis, rail trains, and bikes all while picking up and delivering Doordash orders within the one-hour limit. Yep, not easy at all. Enter an established nationwide distribution network comprised of rails and roads to make life easier and products fresher.

Cashew milk: Have a little help from…a global conglomerate

When visiting the grocery store, are you as overwhelmed as I am at the dairy aisle? As if there isn’t enough competition among traditional milks – organic, conventional, regional, skim, whole – we must mine through the plant-based options, too. And manufacturing these alternative milks are way more complicated than its traditional, sole-ingredient counterpart.

Why? Turn that carton around and take a look at that ingredient list. Surprisingly extensive, right? For this supermarket trip, I’m going to give Silk vanilla cashew milk a shot. For brevity (not to mention my sanity), I’m looking into its top five ingredients. Here we go…

Cashews. Delicious, creamy…and definitely not from around these parts. Cashew trees need constant heat and sunlight to grow, which is why they are mostly cultivated in India; Africa and Vietnam are also significant exporters to U.S. Next up by ingredient weight are almonds, which are domestically produced. In fact, 80% of the global supply comes from California alone.

Nuts comprise the bulk of the product, with a lengthy series of additives making up the balance. Many of these are produced, manufactured, and exported to U.S. processing facilities. These ingredients include locust bean gum sourced from carob trees along the Mediterranean; sunflower lecithin, formerly from Ukraine and Russia, but now most likely from Argentina and Romania; and vanilla from Madagascar. Vitamins are also mixed in to deliver a fortified product that can more readily compete with traditional milk’s nutrient density.

All these moving parts make me wonder: how can a company source so many global ingredients to supermarkets worldwide before the product expires? Simple…just get purchased by Danone, a massive international food company with reaches into the furthest parts of the world.

Otherwise, a company may be stuck with just a couple U.S. facilities and then be forced to orchestrate its own distribution system in hopes that its products arrive on time…and not expired.

Coffee: A unique ‘blend’ of hemispheres

Ah, coffee. This is probably nearest and dearest to my heart on this list. And not just because it brings joy to me each and every morning, but also because each heavenly sip truly connects the Southern Hemisphere with the Northern Hemisphere. Every. Single. Granule.

You see, you think coffee would be super simple to envision its journey because it’s just one ingredient, but it couldn’t be farther from the truth.

Let’s take Folgers, one of America’s favorite coffee brands, for a ride. Similar to many other large coffee company brands you see at your supermarket, Folgers uses a mix of robusta and arabica coffee beans in their blend.

Robusta beans provide that caffeine rush but at the cost of a more grainy, harsh taste. Arabica, on the other hand, is smoother, has more depth of flavor, and is harder to cultivate. Specialty coffees are usually 100% arabica, which is one reason why you’ll see them at a higher price point.

To keep its prices down, Folgers is reported to blend their coffees with 60% robusta and 40% arabica beans from all across the “coffee belt”, the equatorial line where coffee grows in abundance. And when I write “blend”, I mean it.

You know how you’ll see labels showing where the beans are from, like “100% Colombian”, “Ugandan”, or “South American blend”? You won’t find such a level of specificity with Folgers Classic Roast. Why? Because they collect the mix of beans from across the coffee belt, roast and grind them in their New Orleans facility, and then package and distribute across the U.S. and Asia via its parent company, Procter & Gamble. Seriously, a global connection in every ground.

Value & connection in our food

Now I can’t help but look at ingredient labels; not just for nutritional and health reasons, but for exploration and continued curiosity. Even with seemingly no end to inflation in sight, it puts prices for these goods in a different perspective. Yes, I need to be more mindful of my wallet when going to the grocery store nowadays, but the value is undeniable.

And although globalization feels less prevalent over the last few years because of Covid, the war in Ukraine, logistical snafus like the Ever Given canal blockage, just to name a few, we depend on one another. It’s a complicated, interwoven relationship with nations across the globe where one small snag weakens the fabric of interconnected networks. And as the war continues and other global situations arise that disrupt our food system, there’s still no denying these key partnerships provide the choices, convenience and prices we’ve all become accustomed to.

So with that, take heart that these suddenly complicated global food products, like cashew milk and white chocolate macadamia nut cookies, will continue to fill our store shelves.

Dean Foods was founded in 1925 by Samuel E. Dean, Sr., who guided the growth and development of a basic dairy milk processing operation into something much bigger and more far-reaching.

Over time, Dean Foods moved to bottling its own brands, invested in research and product development, and alternative products, such as dry milk powder and coffee creamers, juice, teas, and other food offerings. This long-term growth strategy through the development of nutritious and tasty beverages and foods made Dean Foods one of the most recognized and respected names in its industry.

After being acquired by Suiza Foods Corporation in 2001, Dean Foods began to see real change – in its structure, and its approach to the market. Some processing plants were spun off, and an aggressive program of acquisitions and divestitures brought more and more brands and consumer offerings.

Dairy’s growing pains

Their growth was short-lived as in 2020, Dean Foods filed for bankruptcy because they were unable to meet their debt and pension obligations. Dairy Farmers of America ended up purchasing most of their assets.

By comparison, Borden Dairy also produced huge quantities of dairy milk for the retail market – more than 500 million gallons each year, from 12 plants across the country. This household name in dairy dates its origins back to 1857.

In addition to traditional milk, Borden’s family of dairy products includes lactose-free milks, flavored milks, high-protein milk, juices, creams, and dips. Similar to Dean Foods, Borden had a turbulent history of various food products, many of which were divested and sold off.

Yet, they also went bankrupt in 2020 and sold their assets to New Dairy Opco LLC owned by a former CEO of Dean Foods, Gregg Engles, and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR).  They struggled with the rising cost of milk combined with their debt forced them in filing for bankruptcy.

Is a changing industry to blame?

Analyst reports show that the most commonly cited reason for the plight of Dean Foods rests in the fundamental changes that have been underway in the dairy sector for several decades. To many observers, both companies are simply victims of structural changes in the dairy industry that were just too big to overcome. Here are a few examples that come to mind:

• Fewer family dairy farmers. Dean Foods’ midwestern heritage helped shape a focus on buying milk from smaller dairy producers. However, the company couldn’t source enough whole milk at prices competitive with those offered by larger, more efficient operators.
• Changing milk processing patterns. As larger and more efficient dairy operations emerged, large processing and distribution centers began to change, as well. Many producers faced the cold reality of operating outside these new structural realities, adding to the cost-price disadvantage they faced.
• More competition from retailers. When huge companies such as Walmart and Kroger decided to aggressively market their own dairy labels, Dean Foods and other processors were put in the position of becoming not just suppliers to such companies, but competitors to them as well.

Or dairy’s changing consumer tastes?

But structural change was only part of the picture facing Dean Foods and the entire dairy industry. Changing dietary patterns and increasingly complex consumer demands also had to be considered.

Lower consumption of whole milk.

Fewer of us drink a glass of milk at dinner now. Evolving taste and health preferences, and changed lifestyle means U.S. households aren’t consuming as many whole milk products as in the past.

U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics show that per-capita consumption of dairy milk beverages fell by 14% between 2015 and 2021. If you look back at 1975 when everyone drank a glass of milk at breakfast, lunch, and dinner, the consumption in 2021 went to 134 pounds per person from 247 pounds…a precipitous drop of 46%.

Rise in demand for alternative dairy-free products.

Lately, consumers are showing a lot of love for a variety of alternative dairy milks: almond, walnut, oat, potato, hazelnut, flax, tiger nut, quinoa, chia seed, macadamia, soy, cashew, rice, pea, coconut, and even hemp.

Despite this growth, consumers only consume about 6 pounds per year. Also, there are other animals that produce milk for human consumption as well: goats, sheep, camel, and buffalo – all eating into the cow’s milk market share.

Environmental sensitivities.

More and more consumers also have indicated a preference for companies that mirror their own desire to be “close to” nature and protective of the environment and its inhabitants. Companies conveying these desired values tend to connect better with consumers. They want to see the cow or the plant or the farm where their product came from.

Or does the company need changing?

For Dean Foods in particular, among the most contentious points raised in any analysis is the issue of “poor management” and “bad decision-making.” Hindsight and second-guessing follow business failure like kids chase ice cream trucks. But many critics point to several factors that may have contributed to the mess facing the company.

• Mistakes in managing the brand portfolio. For example, the company’s willingness to sell off some of its plant-based product alternatives and “healthy foods” units have been widely criticized. Such a strategy made it imperative for the company to maximize the operational efficiency of its traditional dairy businesses, which has proven to be a very daunting task, given the economic pressures facing the production industry.
• Failure to listen. The company has faced charges of not listening to the consumer and failing to recognize the fundamental changes in their expectations. Consumers want more choices that match health concerns and personal values. Reports by environmental groups citing the company’s alleged poor performance in dealing with water quality and other environmental protections can’t be ruled out as a contributing factor to the present situation.

Say ‘cheese’…please??

The FDA recently issued a draft guidance on how to label non-dairy milks. They want to ensure that plant-based milks are sold as alternatives to milk and not to be misconstrued as milk.  The agency’s recommendation is that plant-based beverages with “milk” in its product name show nutritional differences from cow’s milk on the carton’s label.  For instance, does it have more or less Vitamin D, calcium, potassium, and vitamins A and B-12?

Yet when one looks at overall milk demand and dairy cows – the numbers support that consumers still look to the cow for their dairy.

Total Milk Production in the U.S., in million pounds 

Milk production has increased while the number of U.S. dairy cows has remained steady, at just over 9 million head. Milk volume has also increased worldwide by over 9% since 2015. Dairy cows today are much more efficient due to more sophisticated feed and genetics. The average U.S. dairy cow produces 24,262 pounds per year versus ten years ago when it was 21,722 pounds a year.  Cows that eat just grass give about 50 glasses of milk a day. But cows that eat a mixture of corn, vitamins, grass, and hay can double their volume to about 100 glasses of milk a day.

But if consumers are not drinking as much milk, then why did milk production increase?  It is all about the cheese.  Between pizza, charcuterie boards, macaroni and cheese, and everything else about cheese, the milk volume has increased by 12%.

What’s next?

The FDA has just provided a draft guidance in to ensure the consumer is not confused about the nutritional difference between cow’s milk and plant-based milk. The dairy industry fought against the word ‘milk’ when it was linked to a tree, a nut, or grain because it doesn’t have the same levels of calcium, vitamin D, and other nutrients.  While plant-based milks are fortified, those nutrients are not necessarily all absorbed by the body.

The FDA requested that all alternative drinks, if they have the word ‘milk’ on the label, compare to cows milk.  For instance, the label would say, ‘contains lower amounts of Vitamin D and calcium than milk.”

For the average consumer, the take-away from the Deans Food and Borden saga is fairly straight-forward. Despite the continuing difficulties facing the dairy industry, they will see ample supplies of reasonably priced dairy products and dairy alternatives. Consumers can expect to see the number and variety of dairy products continue to grow, and the relentless competitive forces at work across the industry hold prices down.

Potentially the more important lesson may involve other sectors of the food industry. Business strategy, structure and operations must be linked to the realities of the market. That includes adaptation to new market economics, and the structure and way of doing business that accommodates them.

Poultry’s high viral transmissibility

The world loves poultry. The total number of chickens around the world is over 34 billion; 9 billion are in the United States alone. Americans eat about 118 pounds of chicken and turkey per year. And, they are easy to grow. Their feed conversion rate is low: two pounds of chicken feed contribute to one pound of growth. This is compared to beef which has an eight-to-one ratio and fish which is one-to-one.

Chickens typically live in very close proximity to each other, making infectious diseases like Avian Influenza challenging to contain. The term ‘fowl plague’ virus was first detected in 1878 in Italy. Since then, it has morphed into two categories: high and low pathogenic. This latest outbreak seems to be high. The current virus, H5N1, originated in China and then spread through Europe and the rest of Asia.

The most recent H5N1 bird flu outbreak has killed over 140 million domestic birds around the world.  In the United States alone, at least 58 million birds have either died or been culled because of Avian Influenza since January 2022.  While it is hard to tell exactly how many wild birds have Avian Influenza, the CDC estimates it is around 6,000 and is in 47 states.

Here are the U.S. counties that have reported an outbreak, to date:

Since the outbreak in 2014-2015 poultry farms have been diligent about keeping their operations sanitary and not spreading germs between facilities. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has biosecurity measures called ‘defend the flock’ and these precautions are taken seriously. An outbreak at a farm seems to be caused by wild birds that somehow infect the domestic birds.

Free-range birds are the most at risk because they can catch it from wild birds since their living arrangements are the least controlled.

And the birds that it affects are mostly egg-laying chickens versus broilers – those that we eat.  Turkeys are also affected.

Can wild birds pass it to mammals?

The World Health Organization reported to the BBC that the most recent outbreak is spilling over into mammals. It has been found in animals that eat birds such as foxes, mink, and seals. But surprisingly, dolphins, too – which generally don’t eat wild birds.

Sea lions in Peru were particularly hard hit. It is difficult to tell whether they transmitted it among themselves or they were all eating infected birds. Researcher Victor Gamarra-Toledo and his team at Peru’s Natural History Museum of the National University of San Agustín de Arequipa reported that 3,000 sea lions died. They are in the process of genetic testing to investigate the virus sequencing.

Along the coast of Maine it was reported that there have been 337 seals that are either sick or dead with H5N1 since June 2022. This has been deemed an ‘unusual mortality event along the Maine coast’ by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Minks at a farm in Spain were decimated this past October from an H5N1 outbreak. All 51,00 minks either died from the disease or were culled. The minks were kept in netting cages where they had a roof but the sides were open. There were sick birds found along the coast nearby.

There was also a mink farm outbreak in the Netherlands. So far none of the workers at either farm have caught the H5N1 virus and they are all wearing masks and protective clothing to mitigate their chances.

Does this spread to humans?

JAMA Network states that only a handful of human infections have been reported, all among people who have had direct contact with poultry.

An 11-year-old girl in Cambodia died from H5N1. Her family had 22 chickens and ducks so she easily could have got it by close proximity to their feces. It can be inadvertently transmitted by inhalation. While her father has the same strain of flu, it is hard to know whether he got it from the birds – or from his daughter.

In April 2022, a man in Colorado was culling an infected herd and caught it. He recovered fairly quickly as he was given Tamiflu. According to WHO, in the past nine years, from June 2003 to February 2023 there have been 870 cases of humans getting H5N1 – however, they have all had close proximity to poultry and did not catch it from another human.

Can we safely eat poultry and eggs?

It is safe to eat poultry and eggs and like any animal products, it is important to cook thoroughly.

• Properly cooked poultry and eggs (at 165 internal temp or higher) are safe to eat- and there is no evidence that it can be spread to humans through properly prepared foods
• It is unlikely that infected eggs or chickens can enter the food chain given that the symptoms of this flu have a rapid onset
• USDA has safeguards in place including testing flocks and Federal inspection programs like HPAI-risk based classification system to determine the order in which egg farms are inspected, works with the State Animal Health Officials on farm checks and testing

What is wheat?

Wheat is one of the oldest and most important grain crops in the world, with Russia, Canada, and the U.S. providing half the exported wheat across the globe. Besides being a key ingredient for the production of breads, cereals, and pastas, wheat can also produce starch, paste, dextrose, gluten, alcohol, among other products. Fun fact: Americans consume 53 pounds of bread each year. At 75-80 calories per bread slice, that’s a lot of dough.

Wheat first requires processing to make food products. The wheat’s grain must first be cracked and then it’s passed through a series of rollers. As the smaller particles get sifted through, the coarser particles pass through additional rollers for further reduction. About 72 percent of the milled grain becomes white flour. Nothing goes to waste, with most milling by-products added to livestock feeds.

Types of wheat

There are six major classes of wheat, mostly classified as “hard” or “soft”.

Hard types of wheat are mostly grown in dry climates, leading to higher protein and gluten content. This makes it ideal for breadmaking.

Soft types are grown in more humid conditions, creating a lower protein content and weak gluten. These flours are mostly used for sweeter breads like cakes and cookies.

Here are the six classes of wheat:

• Hard Red Winter
  • Grown across the Midwestern U.S., it’s the most popular class of wheat, representing about 40 percent of U.S production
  • High in gluten, best for leavened breads
• Hard Red Spring
  • Grown mainly in Dakotas, Montana
  • Known as the “aristocrat of wheats” for having highest protein content to produce high-quality breads, rolls, bagels, pizza crusts
  • Often blended with other wheat flours to enhance quality
• Soft Red Winter
  • Grown in eastern third of United States
  • Has weaker gluten and lower protein, used primarily for cakes, cookies, crackers
• Hard White
  • Mainly grown in Upper Plains, Montana, Idaho, and California, it’s the smallest class of wheat
  • Distinguished from Hard Red Wheat by its sandy-beige color,
  • Has a slightly lower protein content used for rolls, ‘softer’ breads
• Soft White
  • Grown mainly in Pacific Northwest
  • Its white kernels and higher starch level make it good for cakes, pastries, muffins, snack foods
• Durum
  • The hardest of wheats, with North Dakota and Upper Midwest dominating production
  • Best suited for pasts and semolina

Who is eating all this wheat?

Wheat historically has been the cornerstone of western diets, where climate and other growing conditions made the crop an easily available source of our daily bread. In the eastern world, conditions helped make rice the cornerstone commodity. Improved agronomics and global trade have helped open the door to greater access to both commodities for all.

Today, the taste for wheat-derived foods has spread around the world, nowhere more so than rice-consuming countries like China and India.

China relies on wheat as a major source of food for its 1.4 billion hungry citizens, making it the world’s top wheat producing and consuming nation. India is second.

But when it comes to simple per-capita wheat consumption, westerners are the undisputed champions. In the United States, we love hot, fresh bread and rolls, pasta, pizza, donuts, rolls, cakes and cookies and a great many other products that rely on wheat as the basic ingredient.

And for many in other less-affluent parts of the world, some type of bread remains a fundamental source of the daily nutrition needed for simple survival.

Global wheat production

What goes into a loaf of bread? Let’s start at the top. An average acre of wheat yields about 40 bushels, while corn yields about 177 bushels per acre and soybeans roughly 50 bushels per acre. Each 60-pound bushel of wheat can produce about 42 pounds of white flour, with about 16 ounces of flour in a 1.5-pound loaf of bread, making 42 1.5-pound loaves of white bread, or 90 1.0-pound loaves of whole wheat bread per bushel.

Wheat is the most-produced crop in the world, with corn and rice trailing behind. It’s the second-largest crop produced for human consumption.

Even so, more land worldwide is devoted to wheat production than any other crop – 221 million hectares, compared with 206 million for corn and 165 million for rice.

Wheat has a global production of 781 million metric tons, with U.S. producing about 45 million metric tons.

Since its 1981 peak, U.S. land planted for wheat has declined by more than 42 million acres, and production has decreased by more than 1.1 billion bushels.

However, Russian wheat production has grown from a 2012 low of 38 million tons to more than 80 million this year – and is projected to reach 91 million by 2030.

And here’s a fun fact to end with:

Processing, or milling, wheat is an ancient practice. Bread was a staple food even during the Neolithic time 10,000 years ago and since has been incorporated into religious rituals and traditions. In fact, folklore holds that eating bread crust makes your hair curlier. Want more fun facts about bread? Read more here!