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Food’s Huge Stake in Global Tariff Battle

President Trump called April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day,” citing a national emergency from the continuing trade imbalance between the United States and 185 countries, out of 195 in the world. The President announced an aggressive program of tariff increases and especially aggressive reciprocal tariffs against those countries deemed to have unacceptably inequitable trade relationships with the United States.

The reasons behind Liberation Day seem obvious enough. The United States had a trade deficit in goods – meaning more in the value of imports than in exports – of an estimated $1.2 trillion in 2024.  The Trump Administration’s objective is to bring jobs back to the U.S. and rebalance those tariffs that are higher in other countries than we have here. The largest deficits were with China ($295 billion), Mexico ($172 billion), and Vietnam ($123 billion). (Estimates of the deficits vary slightly among different sources but generally align with these numbers.)

The other compelling reason was the tariff imbalance.  For instance, the EU remains a major customer for U.S. agricultural exports but responded to the initial U.S. tariff action on steel and aluminum by announcing plans in March for their own aggressive tariffs on imports, affecting an estimated $20 billion in U.S. products, on top of $9 billion in tariffs on aluminum and steel from the United States. Targets include soybeans, beef, sugar, dairy and pork – including a tariff of 25 percent on corn, and as yet undetermined level for soybeans.

Trying to follow the evolving tariff proposals is like watching a jigsaw puzzle being assembled in real time—with new pieces added every day, and no one quite sure what the final picture will be.

Current trade situation 

Over the past year, the EU has purchased roughly 3.4 million tons of U.S. corn, mainly for use in their livestock feeding. Total 2024 sales of U.S. corn to the EU were valued at $359 million. The EU soy market is even larger, with imports of U.S. soybeans, meal and oil worth roughly $3 billion and accounting for over 10 percent of all U.S. soy exports.

U.S. agricultural exports to the EU have long faced significant roadblocks as EU legislators sought to protect their rural and farming sector. Phytosanitary standards and other food-safety claims have been used to prohibit or prescribe the food products allowed to be imported, on top of protective tariff levels from 6 to more than 30 percent.

The red numbers are nothing new.  In the month of February 2025, we had a deficit of $122.7 billion — a stark contrast to the last time we had a trade surplus of $15.9 billion back in 1975.  Coupled with rising federal deficits, the trade imbalance has been a thorny fiscal issue policymakers have been reluctant to tackle, due largely to the enormous implications for the national economy and the global international economic system. Presidential candidate Trump promised to take action, and President-elect Trump lived up to his word.

In the weeks since Liberation Day, the promised tariffs have roiled the international trade system and entire economic order. Critics quickly questioned the value of imposing such tariffs on two of the country’s most important trading partners.  The Administration and tariff supporters promptly noted that the highest agricultural trade deficits are with Mexico ($18.8 billion) and Canada ($12.5 billion).

In 2024, the United States is now on pace to reach a $39 billion agricultural trade deficit, the worst in our history.

This 2024 deficit is larger than any trade surplus year besides 2011.

– Andrew Rechenberg, Coalition for a Prosperous America, January 16, 2025

As might well be expected with such a dramatic step, the tariff announcement quickly produced more questions than clear answers. When would they actually begin? What products might be exempt? What are the chances for bilateral trade agreements to avoid or moderate the actual tariffs? The roster of questions continues to grow, with increasing uncertainty apparent in markets worldwide. 

How will tariffs affect farmers & producers?

Put agriculture at the top of the list of those seeking answers. Farmers still must make plans – on what to plant, what inputs, such as fertilizer coming from Canada, are needed and available (and at what price), how to anticipate market volatility and structure the marketing plans they need to find profitability amid low commodity prices and still-high input costs.

How do farmers weather the possible loss of key export markets, especially for soybeans, right now and potentially well into the future?  The U.S. currently exports approximately 50% of the soybean crop to other countries, China as the primary one.

Food manufacturers, distributors and retailers wonder about the reliability of supplies of all sorts of products, coffee, fish, spices and an extensive list of important items whose foreign origins are normally invisible to the consumer.  How much of a cost increase can I absorb, and how much must I pass along to the next link in the marketing chain?

But we don’t have to panic about our fruits and vegetables as they are USMCA compliant and not subject to the new tariff rates.  For example, the U.S. imports about 59% of fresh fruit and 35% of vegetables from other countries, notably Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Canada.  Well, maybe we can panic about tomatoes — now a casualty of the trade war, a 10% increase in the price of tomatoes is a possibility for the 70% of tomatoes brought in from Mexico.

What do corn, soybeans, and China have to do with tariffs?

Exports around the world are a large portion of demand for US agricultural products. They help balance the trade deficit. The U.S. has spent a lot of time and effort to expand market access.  As a result, just about 65% of US soybean production is exported in the form of seed or finished products like soybean oil, soybean meal, meat, and biofuels.  About 30 percent of corn is exported in the form of grain or finished products like ethanol, meat, and dried distiller’s grains feed.

The top three countries targeted for tariffs to date: Mexico, Canada, and China, are also our top three markets for agricultural exports at $30.3 billion, $28.3 billion, and $24.7 billion, respectively, in 2024.

– Betty Resnick, Economist, American Farm Bureau Federation, March 18, 2025

For agriculture, this is much about China.

Before the US-China trade war began in 2017, 40-50% of all global soy going into China was from the US and Brazil was 50%; now (2024) 20% of China’s soy comes from the US, 70% is Brazilian origin. The US has lost ground in China due to the growth in Brazil.

China’s place atop the list of countries facing the highest reciprocal tariffs has attracted extensive attention. The American Farm Bureau estimates that the cumulative tariffs imposed by China on U.S. agricultural products will climb to 71.5 percent for soybeans. As the New York Times observed, “More than half of U.S. soybean exports went to China last year, but the price just went up 135 percent under the tariffs China installed in response to President Trump’s 145 percent tax on Chinese imports.”

Relief for farmers?

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has been engaged with various leaders across the agricultural sector, discussing how to deal with the potentially adverse economic effects of the tariff action. Officials acknowledge the need to offer assistance, but details on just how much aid to provide, how to deliver it, and most of all how to pay for it still are under discussion.

Producers received an estimated $28 billion in financial support during the 2018 trade disputes. Officials worry that the price tag could be even higher this time around. Commodity prices remain well below estimated costs of production and input prices, while a bit lower this year, nonetheless still represent a substantial expense.

Worries about supplies of fertilizers such as potash from Canada and other suppliers also remain, despite progress in carving out some tariff exemptions.  Moreover, unlike the last time around, when the dispute centered on China, the global extent of the proposed tariffs also will affect the ability to market to other customers around the world, especially many of the key traditional markets facing tariffs above 10 percent.

Some officials continue to argue that income from the tariffs will help provide additional funds, but that income has yet to be realized. Hopes to fund the economic support through USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) are also being discussed. But the actual amount of money available under the CCC’s $30 billion authority is still in question.

The prospect of approaching Congress for additional funds poses big political issues, as both the House and Senate work to resolve an already contentious budget blueprint – not to mention how taxpayers would respond to spending more for farm relief amid the drive for spending cutbacks and fiscal balance.

And the consumer?

The effort to address the long-standing problem of the trade imbalance won’t come without a cost to the American consumer, at least as the negotiations needed for resolution of the problem play out and global markets stabilize.

According to the political website The Hill, the Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs could result in a de facto tax increase of $1,900 for each U.S. household in 2025, unless the issue is resolved quickly.  That figure includes the added cost of everything subject to the tariffs, not just food.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates tariffs of 25 percent for Mexico and Canada on products ranging from beef, pork, grains, potatoes and canola oil (Canada) and vegetables, fruit, beverages and spirits (Mexico) could result in an increase of 1.63 percent in costs.

Threats to impose a 20.9 percent tariff on tomatoes from Mexico when the existing tomato import agreement expires in July could lead to a noticeable jump in prices, according to the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas.

While most economists seem to agree higher tariffs mean higher prices, few agree on exactly how much of an increase to expect. They point to the open question of how much of the higher costs portions of the food chain are willing to absorb and how much they feel compelled to pass along.

The answer may be some time coming, and still subject to further decisions and actions taken by the Trump Administration in refining and finalizing its trade strategy.

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Transcript – Digging In: The Future of Food

Click here to listen to the podcast episode, and visit our D2D podcast page to check out our other episodes. Happy reading!

For us to successfully and sustainably feed our global population, the farm and agriculture community must have a good working relationship with governments. They also need the consumer to understand where their food comes from and how it is grown and made. Only then, will farmers be profitable and be able to continue to adopt to a changing climate and exciting new technologies.

First, let’s start with the basics:
You are all one of 600 million farmers in the world, and almost 2 million in the United States. The average farm size is 466 acres. Of course, we hear of the demise of the family farm, but if you look at farmland in 1885, when you first began, total acreage was 354 million, the size of Alaska, and today it is 876 million acres. About the size of Alaska, California, Texas, and Nebraska. 95% are family farms. Each year, on average, one U.S. farm feeds 170 people in the world.

We can appreciate Elon Musk with DOGE, SpaceX, and Tesla. Or Jensen Huang with Nvidia – the scaffolding of AI. But without the basics of food, we would go the way of the Mayan Civilization.

Our history is replete with advances in food production. Beginning with the shift from hunters to gatherers to mass cultivation. But going from chasing animals down with a bow and arrow to driving a John Deere tractor took about 13,000 years. Then, our population was 5 million and today we are 8.2 billion. In the next five years we will add the entire population of the United States to the world. In the next 15 years, we will add three more United States’ population to the world for a total of 9.7 billion people.

What makes this exciting is that the changes in agriculture are moving at the speed of light. In the next 15 years, we will make more advancements in agriculture than we have in the past 13,000 years. We have amazing innovative technology, better inputs, and more responsible production and natural resource management tools.

We also have the moral obligation to keep people and animals alive and healthy by increasing our agricultural production by 50%. We must be even more efficient as demand for food will exceed freshwater supply by 40%.

Today, we grow and produce 3,000 calories for each of the 8.2 billion people around the world. As an aside, on average, we eat 2,000 calories and we throw away the remaining 1,000 calories. I am sure you have heard about food waste.

Population and income levels drive food. Once you begin making more than $3,000 a year, you incorporate more protein into your diet.. Protein, mainly from cows, chickens, pork, all need to be fed – primarily corn and soybeans.

The world produces about 9.9 billion metric tons or primary crops each year. If you were to put all the food we grow on a freight train, it would circle the earth about 50 times.

To feed the growing population, and it’s need for protein, we need between 45 – 55 million metric tonnes a year. Just for fun, we go back to the train. For corn, the train goes from Minneapolis to the North Pole. For soybeans, it goes from Minneapolis to Singapore.

Let’s talk about the role of government: today is food security, tariffs, and biofuels.

The first thing I would like you to remember is the importance of global food security. You will do anything when you and your family are hungry. If you think people will get into fist fights over a tank of gas, just imagine what you might do to make sure your family is fed. If you are a Somalian, you could become a pirate. If you live in Venezuela, where over 87% of the population received some sort of food subsidy, you would turn to crime. The number one cause of hunger around the world is not lack of food, it is civil wars, inter-country conflict, and governmental interference.

Take one of our most favorite foods: chocolate. The U.S. supply chain of $4 billion starts in West Africa where governmental interference has stripped farmers of healthy profits and where child labor is an issue. Now, add on four years of underperforming yields due to weather and climate and it is no surprise that the price of cocoa has gone from 2,000 a ton to a high of 12,000/ton earlier this year. I can assure you that the farmer is not getting even $2,000.. Because of government mismanagement, cocoa is picking up its beans and headed elsewhere, mostly likely Brazil. Of course the recent trade announcement has only created more uncertainly as Ivory Coast and Ghana face 21% and 10% tariffs to export their cocoa to the U.S.

This brings us to the importance of trade.
The U.S. agriculture trade is in a deficit of $37b from a trade surplus of $35b as of 2014. We still export about 20% of our agricultural products. Most of that is big ag: corn, soybeans, canola, cotton.. For every $1.00 of ag exports, we have $2.00 of domestic economic activity. What happened to our agriculture?

Part of the story is the stronger dollar making imports cheaper. We still make enough calories to feed every American, but we are importing more products such as tropical fruits, coffee, and cocoa that we don’t produce here. For instance, bananas our our number one import. We like international variety in our imported beer and wine: think Corona Beer and European vineyards. And because our labor costs are higher than other countries, we are importing more vegetables and processed foods that we could profitably make here.

Without fair trade, U.S. farmers are under economic stress. There is a global surplus of soybeans and corn, futures are down, and the uncertainty of Trump’s new tariff policy is foreboding. . Our top trading partners are where the tariffs are going to hurt the most: Canada, Mexico, for imports and China for exports.

Uncertainty is difficult. At what point will the immigration and fentanyl issues be resolved? How long will Trump use tariffs for leverage against Chinese investment in Canada and Mexico?

What impact will retaliatory tariffs have? Particularly with China? US corn and soybeans are export dependent. 51% of our soybeans are exported to China, Argentina, Japan, Mexico and Spain. Think about that, half of our soybean crop is part of the tariff war.

Brazil is our number one competitor and together we supply over 80% of global soybeans for animal feed and cooking oil. Tariff wars cause us to lose market share. After the US-China trade war in 2017, the US market share of soybeans to China went from about 45% to 20% whereas Brazil’s is now 70%.

With Corn, 30% is exported in the form Mexico, Japan, China, Columbia, and Canada.

Besides trade, how did we get to this global surplus? All roads lead to oil.

Since the oil shocks and the environmental awakening of the 1970s, we have seen steady growth and farmer dependence on ethanol and other biofuels. Today about 40% of our corn crop is used for ethanol and 45% of soybean oil is used for biofuels.

Biofuels are one of the reasons of our oversupply. Since the 70s, farmers have added yield and acreage to accommodate the fuel and food needs of our country and the world. Biofuels are critical for farmer profitability. Breakeven for corn is around $5.25 bushel, today’s price is 4.68/bu. For soybean breakeven is about $12.50 bushel, today, we are at $9.97/bu. You can see the immediate effect of tariffs and biofuel uncertainty and record global stocks.

The Trump 2.0 Administration is more favorable, toward biofuels than his first administration. On his first day, he released the American Energy policy that ‘unleashes America’s affordable and reliable energy.” The U.S. leads the world in biofuel production. Back to the train, each year, this train would go half-way around the Earth’s circumference.

As I mentioned earlier, food consumption is expected to increase – and so is global energy. It is anticipated to increase by about 24% over the next 15 years. Demand for AI data centers and electric vehicles are certainly part of it but the bulk will be rising demand in and China (depending on how they handle the tariffs), SE Asia, India, and S.America. Are biofuels part of the conversation?

One positive piece of news is the coalition between big energy and big ag working together to push the EPA to increase the biofuel mandate. The conversation around energy will be interesting in the coming days or months given OPEC might reduce production by 400,000 barrels a day.

The question for farmers, is , Will there be a subsidy? The Inflation Reduction Act, while overall controversial, did have a $1.25 credit for biofuel production. Trump also gave farmers $28 billion to offset the China trade war of 2017. There is talk today of giving farmer’s tariff funds to offset any additional China import issues.

What is the answer for farmers? Tariffs and biofuels policies are a challenge at the moment. But the anticipated global growth can balance this out. Of course, there will always be weather disruptions. No one, with any pride, likes a handout. We are in a unique economic time – and not just for agriculture. It is an interesting situation for sure

As I mentioned, food unites all of us. Growing food sustainably is important.

There is a lot of emphasis on regenerative agriculture. Keeping your soil healthy, enhancing your crop nutrients, not letting water run off your fields and increasing your yield – is no easy feat. It can mean. no-till farming and cover crops which in turn means healthier soil and less synthetic inputs. The beauty of regenerative agriculture is that it can be uniquely applied to each farmer, location, weather pattern, and differentiated crops.

General Mills, Pepsi, Unilever, Walmart, Danone, Nestle are just a few CPG companies that have committed to sourcing ingredients from regenerative ag. Cargill, and, I don’t like to admit, ADM also, and other buyers partner with farmers to help them make the financial commitment for regen ag.

Now comes the exciting technology: Precision Agriculture uses technology to manage farms more efficiently by using real time data to make informed and immediate decisions about where to apply fertilizer, pesticides, water, and seeds on distinct parts of the field.

John Deere is solving both the agricultural labor issue and addressing sustainability. I was speaking with Aaron Wetzel, VP of Production & Precision Ag Production systems at John Deere. They have asked themselves, ‘How do we best help our customers be more successful?” The answer? Technology. They are not just a tractor company anymore. A few years ago, they paid hundreds of millions of dollars to hire just 65 software engineers from Silicon Valley. Their investment has paid off. It is not easy to remake yourself from a plow to a software company after 180 years

They have See and Spray technology on their tractors which enables each spray nozzle to recognize a weed, spray it, all without herbicide drifting to nearby plants. Their farmers have reduced their chemical inputs by 60%. For more on John Deere, I am putting a plug in for a Dirt to Dinner podcast I did with Aaron.

John Deere Isn’t the only one on the field. AGCO, Trimble, CASE, and DJI Agriculture are just a few at the forefront of this revolution, developing integrated solutions that combine advanced software platforms with sophisticated machinery.

I see the future, and it is robotics. The autonomous tractors are the real revolution. Basically, these are just gigantic robots moving down the field. The John Deere tractors can till, plant seeds, and harvest on their own. They have 16 cameras for a 360-degree view, powered by 2 NVidia chips. Farmers can precisely farm from the dinner table, from a conference, reducing labor, inputs, and of course, increasing yield.

These autonomous machines rely on inputs such as cameras, light radar, satellites, density altitude, and other environmental sensors. They learn, make spot decisions, and then move some type of actuator like a wheel, a sprayer, an arm, or any part of a robot. This information goes into the cloud to help train other machines. But not just like machines. A John Deere combine can train a John Deere lawn mower or a construction vehicle.

What used to take days and lots of labor to harvest anything from lettuce to Brussels sprouts, now can take only minutes. Machines are not just more efficient; they have an autonomous life of their own. Greenfield robotics is an AI powered robot pulling weeds all day and all night. No herbicide and no labor needed. Farm-ng has an automated robot that can tailor seeding, weeding, and compost spreading to a specific crop. It can cut down weekly labor by 50-80%. Robotics Plus, purchased by Yamaha Motor, combines data analytics and automation in the field to produce growing insights for farmers.

Who would have thought that agriculture would be the forefront of physical AI.

These machines are not just on the field. I think of the ‘factory of the future’ where labor is needed for dangerous jobs, heavy lifting, or monotonous tasks such as packing fruit. I have seen entire sections of processing plants, that used to have 50 people, are incredibly productive without a human in sight. That is the future of agriculture – and many other industries.

To be honest, no one is ordering a brand new autonomous John Deere tractor if their corn and soy is underwater. I mentioned the importance of government policy. I mentioned that the way we are farming is changing at the speed of light. What is equally important is consumer education.

Misinformed people make bad decisions – about their diets and ultimately the health and well-being of their families. They support quick fixes to complex problems – and risk undoing much of the incredibly productive, efficient food system that we have today. I honestly think people think we should deliver our eggs via bicycles and cook with beef tallow.

I will do a speed finish with just a few examples of misinformation:

  • GMOs let the world meet its food needs, sustainably. There are no health issues to humans, soil, or water with GMOs. Which leads to glyphosate.
  • Roundup Ready, if used correctly, in your backyard or on the farm field is safe for humans, water, and soil. Regenerative agriculture works the best with genetically modified crops to be resistant to glyphosate.
  • Oilseeds, canola, soy, corn, and palm are fine to cook with. It is all about the smoke point, not the oil ingredients
  • Organic still has chemicals. They are just ‘natural’.
  • You must eat a bathtub full of red M&Ms every day in order to be negatively impacted from the red dye.
  • Processed food is not terrible if you eat it as a treat and not depend on it as a food.
  • Eggs are one of the best whole nutritious foods.

As a farmer, or investor in farmland, you are the ones who feed us every day. Successful agricultural profits, like most other businesses, with less regulation, fair trade policies, and educated consumer choices. There is not one country in the world that doesn’t rely on imports or exports for food and agriculture. The U.S. has built the best food system the world has ever seen by embracing change and making it work for us, not against us.

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Digging In: The Future of Food

In her speech, Lucy highlighted the remarkable growth in agricultural output alongside a surging global population and the imperative for increased production. She also discussed the impact of governmental policies, particularly concerning trade, tariffs and biofuels, on the profitability of American farms.

Lucy also dug into the transformative role of technology, such as precision agriculture and autonomous robotics, in enhancing efficiency and sustainability, and ended with the need for consumer education to understand food production and supporting informed choices.

Click here to access the transcript of this episode, and visit our D2D podcast page to listen in on our other episodes. Happy listening!

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Are Girl Scout Cookies Safe?

Click Play to listen to our generated podcast. Click on links for transcript and our full podcast library. 

Imagine you are “Emily”, a mom of two children in Ohio, who stumbled across a viral post warning that Thin Mints contained glyphosate—a chemical often dubbed a “probable carcinogen”—her heart sank. She had just stocked up on boxes from her daughter’s troop. Was she unknowingly feeding her family something dangerous?

If you’ve felt the same moment of panic scrolling through headlines or mom blogs, you’re not alone. In February 2025, a report citing trace levels of glyphosate, also known as RoundUp, and heavy metals in Girl Scout Cookies exploded across social media. The headlines were dramatic, but the data? Not so much.

How Did Glyphosate Get into Girl Scout Cookies?

First, it’s important to understand that glyphosate isn’t added to cookies. It gets there in ways that are both natural and inevitable in modern agriculture.

“Farmers don’t sprinkle glyphosate into cookie dough,” says an expert we spoke to who is a former USDA National Program Leader for Food Safety and a scientist with a background in pesticide toxicology. “It ends up there through pre-harvest applications, environmental drift, and trace exposure in processing equipment.”

Here’s why glyphosate gets detected on food and ag products:

  • Pre-harvest desiccation: About 30% of farmers apply glyphosate shortly before harvest to dry out wheat and oats evenly. This ensures a uniform, high-quality yield.
  • Environmental spread: Glyphosate can move through wind and water—just like pollen. Even non-treated fields can receive low levels from nearby farms.
  • Cross-contamination: Milling and baking equipment may retain microscopic residues from previous processing cycles.

Still, our expert emphasizes, “Glyphosate is very unstable. It breaks down during processing. By the time it’s made into cookie dough and baked, most of it is likely destroyed.”

The Math behind the Scare: How Much is Too Much?

Let’s talk numbers, because context matters:

  • EPA’s Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI): 1.75 mg/kg body weight/day
  • For a 130-lb child: That’s 103 mg/day of glyphosate
  • Thin Mints tested at: ~0.28 parts per million = 0.00896 mg per 4-cookie serving
  • Glyphosate per cookie: ~0.00224 mg

Therefore, to hit the EPA’s daily limit, you’d need to eat: 103 ÷ 0.00224 = ~46,116 Thin Mints—in one day. How small is that? Our experts states:

“Ten years ago, we were measuring parts per million. Now we’re detecting parts per trillion—or even quadrillion. That’s like finding a single drop of dye in an Olympic-size swimming pool.”

That’s the level of sensitivity that triggered these headlines—not a real health risk.

Why Glyphosate is Still Essential to Farming—and the Planet

The Thin Mint headlines may be new, but glyphosate conversations are years old.

What often gets lost is why glyphosate exists in the first place—and why it’s still used.

  • Reduces tilling: By replacing mechanical weed removal, glyphosate helps preserve topsoil, reduce erosion, and limit greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Increases yield: Without glyphosate, crops are more vulnerable to weeds, pests, and droughts.
  • Helps feed the world: According to a 2022 review published in Frontiers in Agronomy, glyphosate contributes to global food security by improving land efficiency and lowering the environmental footprint of food production.

“There is no scalable alternative right now,” says our expert. “Without glyphosate, prices go up, food waste goes up, and more land gets cleared to compensate for lost yield.”

What about Heavy Metals?

Heavy metals like lead, cadmium, arsenic, and mercury are naturally found in soil and water. Plants absorb them just as they absorb nutrients. This applies to conventional and organic crops alike.

You’ll find trace heavy metals in:

  • Root vegetables like sweet potatoes and carrots (especially the skin)
  • Leafy greens like spinach, kale, and chard
  • Grains, especially brown rice and oats
  • Seafood, like tuna and swordfish, which can be high in mercury

The problem isn’t the presence—it’s repeated, high-level exposure over time, like eating the same thing for lunch every day, or having the same vegetable for dinner 3 nights a week. This is especially true for young children.

How to Minimize Heavy Metal Exposure:

  • Eat a varied diet: Don’t rely on the same foods daily, especially high-risk ones like rice-based snacks, sweet potatoes, or leafy greens from the same source.
  • Peel root vegetables: The skins can concentrate heavy metals—especially important for baby food.
  • Rinse produce: Washing removes soil particles that may carry heavy metal dust. Adding some vinegar to the wash increases efficiency.
  • Limit certain fish: Mercury-heavy fish like swordfish and king mackerel should be eaten sparingly, especially by pregnant women and children.

“Our testing has evolved to detect incredibly small quantities,” our expert explains. “Now we know more about what’s in our food—but we also need to know how to interpret it.”

What are the FDA and EPA Doing?

While headlines often spark fear, it’s important to recognize the behind-the-scenes work being done to keep our food supply safe.

Both the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) play critical roles in protecting public health by monitoring, regulating, and reducing exposure to potentially harmful substances like heavy metals and pesticide residues.

Their efforts don’t just stop at setting limits—they’re advancing research, guiding manufacturers, and adjusting policies based on emerging science. Here’s how each agency is working to ensure transparency, safety, and continual improvement in the foods we eat every day.

FDA: Closer to Zero Program

This program targets lead, arsenic, cadmium, and mercury in foods consumed by infants and children. Their strategy is to:

  • Set action levels (e.g. 10 parts per billion for lead in infant cereals)
  • Guide manufacturers to reformulate and reduce toxic element exposure
  • Continuously monitor, analyze, and revise safety thresholds

The FDA acknowledges that no amount of lead is safe for children—and they’re working across the industry to minimize it.

EPA: Pesticide Residue Oversight

The EPA’s most recent glyphosate review found:

  • No cancer risk at dietary exposure levels
  • Glyphosate is safe when used according to label instructions
  • Ongoing studies are evaluating glyphosate’s metabolites for future review

These programs ensure consumers aren’t left in the dark—they offer transparency, data, and science-backed policy updates.

Here’s What Emily Can Do

Emily is not alone in wanting to keep her kids safe. The good news is, staying informed and proactive doesn’t have to be overwhelming. One of the most effective things you can do is encourage variety in your family’s diet.

“People get into food ruts,” explains our expert. “And that’s where exposure builds. If you eat spinach, carrots, and brown rice every day, you’re not getting balance—you’re increasing your risk.”

Rotating your produce, trying different whole grains, and switching up your protein sources helps minimize the accumulation of any one type of contaminant. In short, dietary diversity is a powerful form of protection.

It’s also important to rinse all fruits and vegetables—yes, even the organic ones.

Pesticide residues and naturally occurring heavy metals can cling to soil dust on the surface of produce. Washing them thoroughly helps reduce that exposure.

And when it comes to processed treats, like cookies or cereal bars, the key is moderation.

They’re meant to be enjoyed as occasional snacks, not everyday staples. They shouldn’t be vilified, but they also shouldn’t crowd out nutrient-dense whole foods.

Navigating the Noise: Trust Science, Not Clickbait

“Don’t get your science from TikTok,” our expert says bluntly.

Instead, rely on reputable, evidence-based sources like FDA and EPA reports, peer-reviewed research in journals such as Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety, Frontiers in Agronomy, and Food Chemistry, and organizations like the National Institutes of Health, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO/WHO).

Be skeptical of dramatic headlines or social media posts that lack proper sourcing. Context matters—trace detection does not mean danger. And beware of comparisons between food safety limits and water safety standards, which have entirely different risk profiles and thresholds. Understanding that distinction is key to separating fear from fact.

Remember, here’s what we know:

  • Glyphosate is heavily regulated, essential for sustainable agriculture, and used in ways that significantly reduce environmental harm.
  • The trace amounts found in food—especially in Girl Scout Cookies—are nowhere near harmful.
  • Our testing capabilities are more sensitive than ever, but that doesn’t mean our food is more dangerous—it just means we know more about it.
  • The real focus should be on reducing overall processed food consumption and embracing a diet built on whole, varied, nutrient-dense foods.

Emily’s concern is valid. But panic isn’t the answer—context, science, and variety are.

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Transcript: Are Girl Scout Cookies Safe?

 

Click here to read the original post.

You know, when you’re scrolling online, maybe late at night, and a headline just grabs you. Well, lately, especially if you look forward to Girl Scout cookie season like I do. You might have seen these posts from February 2025.

The glyphosate claims and heavy metals, too. It definitely makes you pause before grabbing another cookie.

It absolutely does. And look, that’s a normal reaction when you hear pesticides, heavy metals, especially with food.

Yeah. Food for your family, right? Caution flags go up immediately. It’s understandable.

Okay. So, let’s really dig into that because that’s what we’re doing today. This deep dive. We’re looking past the, you know, the social media noise. Trying to get to the science of it.

Yes. What’s actually going on with these cookies? Our mission here is to sort the facts from the fear, understand the science, and figure out if there’s anything we genuinely need to worry about. Exactly. We’re not trying to dismiss anyone’s concerns, but we want to give it some real context, you know, based on the data we have.

Context, right? Science, not just scary headlines.

So, you can make up your own mind without hopefully needless panic.

Okay, first big one. Glyphosate. How on earth does that stuff get into a cookie? The idea someone’s adding it in is well, it’s weird, right? And that’s the first uh really critical point. It’s not an ingredient. Nobody is like one expert said, spring sprinkling glyphosate into cookie dough.

Instead, if it’s there at all, it’s in these tiny tiny trace amounts and it gets there indirectly through the farm ingredients.

Okay, indirectly. How? Break that down.

Well, there are basically three main ways this can happen. First is something called preharvest desiccation.

So maybe about 30% of farmers, give or take, might spray glyphosate on crops like wheat or oats right before harvest.

Why would they do that?

It helps everything dry down evenly. You get a more uniform crop, better yield, makes harvesting more efficient.

Okay. So, it’s used on the ingredients. What’s path number two?

Second is just um environmental spread. Think of it like pollen. Glyphosate can drift on the wind, get into water sources. So, even if one farm doesn’t use it, tiny amounts might just be present in the environment from nearby areas. It’s hard to avoid completely sometimes.

Okay. Like background noise almost. Yep. Makes sense. And the third way,

Cross contamination. Tiny microscopic residues might linger on milling equipment, maybe baking equipment, even after cleaning,
from processing other stuff before.

Exactly. Though, it’s also worth mentioning glyphosate isn’t super stable. It tends to break down, especially with heat, like, you know, baking.

Baking probably helps break it down. So, these are really small indirect routes, not someone dumping it in the mixer.

Correct. That feels a bit better already, doesn’t it?

It does. But then you see the numbers they throw around in those posts, parts per per million.

Yeah, sounds bad. Let’s talk about the actual amounts.

Yeah, the numbers. This is where context is absolutely everything. So, the EPA, Environmental Protection Agency, they set something called an acceptable daily intake or ADI. That’s the amount they estimate you could consume every single day for your whole life and not expect any harm. For glyphosate, that ADI is 1.75 milligrams per kilogram of body weight per day.

Okay? 1.75 mg per kilogram. Let’s make that real. Say someone who weighs, I don’t know, 130 lbs. That’s about 70 kilos, right?

Right. 70 kg. So for that person, the daily acceptable intake would be, let’s see, 70* 1.75 about 103.25 milligrams of glyphosate per day.

Over 100 milligrams a day. Okay. Now, what did they find in the thin mints?

The test showed around. 28 parts per million. That sounds like a number, but let’s translate it. In a standard serving, say four cookies,
which is, let’s be honest, the starting point.

Ah, maybe. But in those four cookies, that translates to about 0.00896 milligrams of glyphosate total.

Okay. My brain hurts, but that sounds incredibly tiny compared to the 103 mg daily limit.

Exactly. So, let’s do the fun math. How many of those single cookies would that 70 kilo person need to eat in one day to hit their 103.25 mg limit?

Uh-oh. This is going to be big, isn’t it? works out to something like 46,116 thin mints.

46,000 in one day. Okay. Right. Nobody is eating 46,000 thin mints. I think even I have my limits.

Precisely. It puts the risk into perspective. And there’s another piece to this. Our testing technology is just ridiculously good now.

It’s better than it used to be.

Oh, way better. We used to measure in parts per million. Now we can often detect parts per trillion, even parts per quadrillion. Think of like an Olympic swimming pool being able to detect one single drop of dye in all that water. That’s the kind of sensitivity we’re talking about.

So, the headlines might pop up just because we can find these microscopic traces now, not because there’s suddenly more of it or it’s dangerous.
That’s a huge part of it. The sensitivity drives the detection, which can drive the headlines even if the actual health risk hasn’t changed or is negligible at those levels.

That analogy helps a lot. It’s not necessarily more stuff in the food. We just have sharper eyes scientifically speaking.

You got it. Okay. So, maybe we should switch slightly talk about why farmers use glyphosate in the first place. It’s easy to just focus on the scary headlines.

Good point. They aren’t just spraying it around for fun, presumably. What are the benefits?

Well, it actually plays a pretty big role in modern farming. A key thing is it allows for less tilling of the soil.

Less digging up the fields. Why is that good?

Tilling can lead to soil erosion, loss of top soil, big problems. By using glyphosate to handle weeds, farmers can use no till or reduce tail methods that helps preserve the soil, reduces erosion. And it can even mean lower greenhouse gas emissions from farming operations.

Yeah, that’s a side you don’t hear much about in the scary posts.

Not usually. No. Plus, it helps increase crop yields. Better weed control means more food grown on the same land. That’s vital for, you know, feeding everyone. Global food security.

So, it’s tied into bigger issues, efficiency, sustainability.

Absolutely. There was a review in a journal, Frontiers and Aron. me back in 2022 that really laid out its importance. And frankly, as the expert we looked at said, there isn’t really a scalable alternative right now that does the same job with the same benefits, especially the reduced tilling part.

So, if we just banned it, we’d likely see higher food prices, probably more food waste from lower yields, maybe needing to clear more land for farming. It’s complicated.

Definitely more complex than just weed killer bad.

Okay. What about the other thing mentioned, heavy metals, right? Heavy metals: lead, cadmium, arsenic, mercury. This is a bit different. These are naturally occurring elements.

Natural. So, not from pesticides or farming chemicals.

Mostly not. No, they’re just in the soil in the water. Plants absorb them as they grow, just like they absorb nutrients. And this happens whether the crop is grown conventionally or organically.

Oh, interesting. So, organic doesn’t automatically mean no heavy metals.

Correct. You find trace amounts in lots of common foods, root vegetables like carrots, sweet potatoes, especially in the skin, leafy Greens like spinach, grains, brown rice, and oats can sometimes pick up arsenic from the soil.

Wow. Okay. Even seafood, right? Mercury.

Yep. Certain fish like tuna, swordfish can accumulate mercury from the water. It’s pretty widespread in trace amounts.

So, if it’s natural and in lots of foods, when does it become a concern? Is it the amount?

It’s about the amount and the frequency. The real concern is repeated highle exposure over a long time consistently. eating large amounts of foods that happen to be higher in a specific metal. And this is especially important for little kids. Their bodies are still developing. They’re more sensitive.

So again, it’s not about the occasional cookie setting off alarm bells.

Not usually. No, it’s the overall dietary pattern. And there are things you can do to minimize exposure.

Like what what’s practical?

The biggest thing is eating a varied diet. Don’t eat the exact same things every single day. Mix it up. Rotate your foods.

Makes sense. Reduces the chance of getting too much of any one thing.

Exactly. Also, peeling root vegetables, especially if you’re making baby food, can help since metals sometimes concentrate in the skin.

Okay, peeling carrots and potatoes. Easy enough.

Rinsing all your produce while even organic helps wash off any lingering soil which might contain metals. A little vinegar in the water can help too. And then, yeah, limiting those high mercury fish, particularly for pregnant women and young children. Standard advice there.

These are all pretty sensible things. And again, our fancy testing plays a role here, too, right? Right. Finding these natural traces.

Totally like the experts said, we can just see so much more now. We have more information than ever. The trick is interpreting it correctly. Finding a trace amount isn’t the same as finding a dangerous amount.

Context. Again, it always comes back to context. Are the regulators like watching this stuff? FDA, EPA.

Oh yeah, definitely. Both the FDA and EPA are heavily involved. The FDA has this program called Closer to Zero.

Closer to zero for what?

Specifically targeting lead. arsenic, cadmium, and mercury in foods for babies and young kids. They set action levels like for lead in infant cereal, it’s 10 parts per billion. Okay?

They guide manufacturers on how to reduce levels, then monitor foods, and the FDA is clear. There’s really no safe level of lead for kids. So, the goal is always to get it as low as possible, push it closer to zero.

That’s good to know they’re actively working on it for the most vulnerable group. Yeah. What about the EPA side for pesticides like glyphosate?

The EPA regulates pesticides. Their latest big review on glyphosate concluded it doesn’t pose a cancer risk from dietary exposure at the levels we see. They say it’s safe when used correctly following the label and they keep studying it including its breakdown products the metabolites. So these agencies provide oversight data updates. It’s an ongoing process, right? It’s not static. Science evolves.

Okay, so let’s pull this all together for the listener. What are the practical takeaways here? If you’re that person who saw the scary post, what should you do?

I think the biggest practical advice is is focus on variety for the whole family. Avoid getting stuck in a food rut eating the same few things constantly. Mix up the fruits, veggies, grains.

Exactly. Rinse your produce thoroughly. All of it. And yeah, processed treats like cookies. Enjoy them, sure, but in moderation. Part of a balanced diet, not the main course.

And maybe the best advice we heard, that quote.

Ah, yes. Don’t get your science from Tik Tok or, you know, unsourced social media posts in general.

Absolutely. Go to the credible sources, FDA reports, EPA assessments. Look for peer-reviewed studies and journals. The outline mentioned comprehensive reviews in food science and food safety, frontiers in aronomy, food chemistry. Look at established health organizations, NIH, WH, EFSA in Europe.

Be skeptical of stuff without sources or that sounds super dramatic, right? And be careful comparing things like food safety limits to say drinking water standards. They’re set differently for different reasons. Apples and oranges sometimes.

Okay, so let’s try try to summarize the absolute key points.

Okay. One, glyphosate is regulated. It plays a role in modern farming and the trace levels found in foods like these cookies are considered safe by regulatory bodies.

Two, we can test for really tiny amounts. Now, that doesn’t mean food is suddenly dangerous. It means we have more sensitive tools and more data. Context matters.

And three, the best strategy for overall food safety and health isn’t obsessing over trace amounts in one specific food. It’s focusing on a varied balanced diet rich in whole foods and moderating the processed stuff.

So for everyone listening, yeah, those concerns you felt totally valid starting point, but the answer seems to be context, science, and variety, not panic.
Well put. It’s about informed choices, not fear-based ones.

So enjoy a thin mint or several, just maybe not 46,000.

Probably a good guideline. Enjoy them in moderation as part of that bigger picture of a healthy, varied diet.

All right. And maybe a final thought to leave everyone with. Now that you’ve got this deeper understanding of the science and the regulation around this food scare, what other food topics might deserve the same kind of careful look beyond the headlines?

That’s a good question. Staying curious, staying critical. That’s always a healthy approach to what we eat.

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Digging In with John Deere’s Aaron Wetzel

A key theme throughout Aaron and Lucy’s discussion is John Deere’s enduring success.

This is largely attributed to its commitment to customers, focus on quality and innovation, and doing things the right way by creating value for the customer, addressing labor challenges, and promoting sustainability through technology.

In this way, Wetzel details how John Deere has transformed itself from a machinery manufacturer to a customer-centric technology company. With proprietary technologies like See & Spray for precise weed control and advancements in automation across agriculture, turf, and construction, John Deere leverages machine learning across its strong dealer network.

Looking forward, John Deere aims to remain customer-focused and utilize AI to improve operations and help feed a growing population.

Click here to access the transcript of this episode.

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Transcript: Digging In with John Deere’s Aaron Wetzel

Lucy Stitzer: Welcome to our Dirt to Dinner podcast with Aaron Wetzel, Vice President at John Deere with their Production and Precision Ag Production Systems. Growing up on a farm in Illinois, Aaron has over three decades of experience at John Deere. He is a seasoned leader and expert in the global ag industry, holding roles across sales, marketing, finance, and product development. Speaking with Aaron, I was so impressed with John Deere’s running journey from the self-scouring steel plow in 1837 to the John Deere tractors to the company’s evolution into a pure technology company serving their farmer customers. We welcome Aaron Wetzel.

Good morning, Aaron. Thank you so much for joining Dirt to Dinner and we are very excited to have you on our podcast. Why don’t you tell us a little bit about yourself and a little bit about your introduction to John Deere?

Aaron Wetzel: I have been fortunate to work for John Deere now 37 years. I always like to say I started when I was 10, but that’s not real. I  started right in the middle of my college studies at Augustana College. I was studying accounting and became a summer student working at our corporate offices in Molen, Illinois. And that  ultimately transferred into full-time employment.

On my graduation, upon working for Deere, I started in the accounting finance function. I quickly realized that accounting was not necessarily what I wanted to do. It was a great foundation to have, but I wanted to  make the beans instead of count beans. And so I moved into the sales and marketing function and worked my way through the organization.

I’ve been fortunate in my career to work internationally. I lived and worked in Europe for a few years and also lived and worked in Latin America primarily in Brazil running our Brazil operations for several years from 2007 to 2012. I’ve worked in not only sales and marketing but in manufacturing and product development.

I’ve worked in our financial services business as a chief marketing officer for John Financial and  today I lead our production and precision ag business. So really the culmination of coming together of our equipment and technologies and how we create value for customers. And so it’s as I look back as a farm kid from central Illinois never in my wildest dreams, what I have imagined, who have experienced what I’ve experienced and lived where I’ve lived, all as a result of my career at John Deere.

That’s a great story, a great career. And so tell me how John Deere has been running like a deer since 1845. So what values have kept you at John Deere and that have also kept John Deere going for over 180 years?

I would say first and foremost is our commitment to our customer. You know, I think that’s what has enabled Deere to exist for now nearly 200 years is through the thick and thin of agriculture in the good times and the bad times, Deere is there and working to support the customers that we serve, looking at the opportunities to help create value for them and  we’ve been doing that over and over and reinventing ourselves as a company over that almost 200-year history.

I think another thing that’s important is our focus on commitment to quality and innovation. We’re continually bringing the latest in technologies to our customers and that started in even in the iron space with the self-scouring plow back in 1837 that started the whole company and we’ve been very much focused on how do we bring that innovation but it’s it’s steeped in us having a deep understanding of the customers that we serve.

As I’ve worked across the globe I also think our commitment to  what we call all the how in doing things the right way has also enabled Deere to navigate through challenging times and make sure that we’re doing the things that are right for our customers and that’s what’s kept me at Deere and it’s been an amazing journey but at the end of the day what passions me to get out of bed every morning is what can we do to help create new value for customers and as a as a farm kid myself and making decisions as growing up in the mid-80s when it was a very challenging time in agriculture farming was not an option for me to be able to be in the industry and to be able to do what we do is really rewarding.

So creating value for the customer and that means helping them become more profitable, helping them with their labor and helping them be as sustainable as possible given the times really with the new technology starting as you said earlier with the plow, you know, changing the plow so instead of just going straight through it can dig up the earth a little bit better and make it easier for the farmer.

Were there some tough years. Were there lessons that you’ve learned that have carried you through to today?

Yeah, I would say, in agriculture is a series of really great times and a series of challenging times. And  that’s been the interesting piece during my 37-year history is I’ve seen both. I’ve seen the really positive euphoric times, but I’ve also worked through some challenging times. And for our business, it’s again staying focused on what the customers need. How do we create new opportunities to deliver value for them?

I think about working in Brazil during the 2008 financial crisis and a significant change in credit availability caused a tremendous decrease in  demand for products and we needed to get creative in how we manage our business, how we manage our inventories, but also keeping in mind what customers are going through. And so with with our financial services business. How did we step in and help them through a really challenging time by offering credit available to them?

That’s I think probably in the most critical times our John Financial, the financial services side of our business has been a real key  partner in working with our customers, especially during times of hardship and being able to work specifically with customers in their specific needs and then arranging payment options that need their cash flow requirements to be able to navigate through a challenging time. And I think that’s what’s helped Deere navigate over nearly 200 years of history is that real close connection we’ve built with our customers.

I can imagine that the John Deere financial was a lifeline for customers, especially in 2008. So all of your inventions are helping the farmer become more productive as I said earlier, more profitable, more sustainable. And how did you end up just focusing on the customer? Did you make a conscious effort with your focus is completely on the customer and anything that you invest in to grow is all pertaining to the customer.

I mean it sounds so obvious and it sounds so clear but was there ever a time in your history where you veered off and you had different focus and you were focused on more on machinery or doing something different than your eye only on the customer?

Yeah, it’s been a very long journey of transformation for our company. Lucy, you said it well. You know, if I look back 25, 30 years ago, we were a very product focused company and  machines, bigger, stronger, faster, wider machines to be able to maximize productivity for a person in the cab. And we optimized our business around each of those products, whether it’s a combine, a tractor, a planter, or a sprayer.

What’s been exciting over the past few years as we’ve really doubled down on our technology stack and reorganized our company around our customers. Like today, I’m responsible for the portfolio of opportunities to serve the large scale producers in our business. So, corn and soybean producers, sugarcane, small grains, and cotton producers globally. And so now we’re optimizing our business around what does the customer need?

And it’s that combination of the technology with the product to create that value. And that’s been a real exciting time for me to see that trans information take place, but it’s also helped our business accelerate some of our developments in the technology space to create that value for customers. And really, it’s bringing that technology to help us more precisely place seed, chemical, and nutrients in a time where customers are very much focused on their bottom lines and how do they optimize their inputs.

By doing that, a more precise placement, we’re seeing customers improve their yields because  you’re doing the job better, doing the job of planting better, you’re doing the job of spraying better. And that’s continuing to propel our investments to say how do we create those values in those particular production systems that  help those customers and help us. And so that transition of just being a singular product focus to now being a customer focus is aligning our investments. It’s aligning the organization  our channel and really more deeply understanding the challenges our customers face every day in field.

And you’re really helping the customers make the world a better place, feed more people on existing land sustainably. That’s a higher purpose than just making machines. So before we go into the technology, can you just explain to our listeners a little bit about what kind of crops the farmers harvest? You know, corn, soybeans, cotton, but you also work with lettuce farmers? So what’s the broad range of farmers? And then you also are in construction and timber.

We also have a business focused on turf. So as I said earlier, we’ve we’ll separate our businesses kind of into three separate categories. We have our what we call our production and precision ag business which is what I’m responsible for in creating value for customers that produce corn and soybeans, small grains. So that would be wheat, canola, lentils primarily in Canada, Australia, the great plain states of the US, Europe, sugarcane producers primarily Brazil but also Australia and parts of Asia and some in United States. And then cotton, a fiber that is important for the clothes that we wear and produced in the US, Asia, but also in Brazil predominantly.

And so we’re creating a portfolio of products to help customers produce those crops and technologies to help them do it more sustainably and with better focus on their input. So that’s the production precision ag business. The small ag and turf business we call is really focused on dairy and livestock customers. So bailing, mowing, as well as high value crops. So that would be lettuce producers, orange producers, orchard and vineyards and we’re building out a suite of technologies that we can then leverage from our production and precision ag business into those segments to create the value for customers in a similar manner of more precisely placing chemicals and nutrients.

And in some instances it’s on our own machines, but also in a lot of instances it’s on non- Deere crops. And so being able to take advantage of the technology suite that we’ve got to create value for them were focused in that business. And then we have a turf business that’s a part of that which is commercial landscapers, homeowners, golf courses where we create a series of products that enable us to help create value for them and doing the job faster.

So, I worked in that business for a very long time in my career and on our consumer space, for example. I love having a very nice looking yard, but I don’t want to do it. So, I outsource it to a commercial landscaper that does it for me. And so, we create the machines to be able to do that for them. And then we have our construction and forestry business. So again, all the machines that are in place for earth moving.

You mentioned the timber. So our forestry business that helps harvest lumber around the globe to produce  pulp and paper. And then we have a road building business through an acquisition called Verkett that  gave us a leading position in building roads around the world.

So those I would say are the main business units of Deere today that encapsulate our global operations and then we have some supporting services like our aftermarket business so the part support that’s mission critical for our customers and then we have our financial services business that I mentioned so we really cover the gamut.

When people think of John Deere, you mostly think of farming but didn’t really realize that you were in the lawn and turf and really the timber business as well as road building.

And then in the center of all of that we have what we call our technology stack and that’s really the organization that builds and develops the leading technologies to create the value for customers that we then incorporate into each of these customer segments and product portfolios that I mentioned earlier.

Well, let’s move into technology and I think we can start with the See and Spray technology which is very exciting.

It’s an exciting technology. It’s one that we’ve been working on for quite some time. It’s really helping customers tremendously save on inputs with our technology. We’ve got a series of cameras systems computing on the machine itself. highspeed computing and machine learning capabilities that as a customer is going through the field at 15 miles an hour with their self-propelled sprayer.

We have the technology on the back of the sprayer that’s controlling the nozzle system on the boom that’s only spraying the weeds. And  I’ll use the analogy I go back to being the kid that was 8 years old in a field in central Illinois and we used to walk beans. I don’t know if you walk beans, but we walk beans to kill the wheats. And I always had this dream that I said, “Why can’t we have like a laser beam that would just shoot down the field and only kill the weeds. So I don’t have to be out there walking beans as a kid.

And what’s exciting now nearly 50 years later is the technology exists and we have machines now traversing through fields only killing weeds and that is saving our customers nearly 60% chemicals and in today’s environment that is a significant portion of their P&L and that’s really helping them save money in a time where commodity prices are the challenging and that’s helping them improve their profitability especially at this period of time.

That also not only is it saving them money, it’s also more sustainable for the environment because we’re putting down less chemicals. And so it’s a win-win from being able to improve profits, but also the environmental impact is very positive. And we’re doing that through incorporating these leading technologies into our machines ultimately to create this value for customers.

So does the customer have to program for its specific crop or does the machine just know exactly, okay, this is soy, this is corn, this is what it is, this is how much distances between the rows and knows exactly what to do?

Yeah, it knows. So, we’re spending an enormous amount of time and energy and investment to train the models. As we said, it’s got a machine learning model. So, it’s we’ve taking these machines across thousands and thousands of acres to educate the model on what’s a weed, what’s a soybean,  we train it into different crops and then once we feel confident on where that  particular performance is then we will make it available to customers.

And so right now we’re in soybeans and cotton and we intend to expand that across all of the crop segments that customers produce. And so  it takes some time to get the machine learning capabilities in place, but as it gets faster as we continue to develop into each crop because we learn from one to apply it to the next. And so that’s what’s super exciting about the technology.

It’s the pace of with which it improves and the ability for us to then take that not only to different crops but we take it to different geographies. Crops grown in central Illinois or Iowa slightly different than what we see growing in Brazil. So we need to train the capabilities for those particular applications in that and we’re doing that as well. So we intend to take this capability not only across crops but across the world in terms of offering to customers

Is there something or someone on the tractor monitoring them, making sure that they don’t veer and go astray?

Yeah, so these are it’s designed for a self-propelled sprayer. So, it’s a dedicated machine form that does spraying. You still need to have a person in the cab that’s operating the product, but we have other technologies that are enabling customers to do things in an autonomous way.

And that’s another key pillar of our strategy going forward from a technology perspective to help address some of the challenges customer face and that’s tough.

We’ll talk about the automation in a little bit. When you’re spraying, one question one would have is: is there drift a little bit over to the crop so the crop has to be Roundup Ready or it has to have that, as well?

So there are there are special nozzles that we have that help reduce drift. Drift is a concern for many customers. We have a pulse width modulation system on our sprayers that increase the droplet size so that it reduces the drift and we’ve launched that technology probably about 10 years ago that  is now widely used by our customers and it really addresses that concern you just had around drift because there are some chemicals that are very concerning for customers in terms of drift.

Let’s say you’re spraying  Roundup Ready soybeans and you’ve got a corn field next to you. You got to make sure that reduce that drift otherwise you’ll have a negative impact. So our technologies and our products are positioned for customers to be able to do that to the best of their ability.

And then how about nutrients? Does the same machine do nutrients as well?

Nope. We will be able to do nitrogen and you can do a myriad of other opportunities but  those are still in development but today it’s really focused on glyphosate and other weed management chemicals.

So you were talking about when you were younger and you were walking through soy and you were spraying the weeds and you thought well wouldn’t it be great if there was a laser that would get rid of weeds. There are some tractors out there that have robotic weed pullers and I don’t know have if the laser is available but is that something you’re moving towards is eliminating the weeds without any spray?

We see those opportunities. A lot of startup companies today that are looking at mechanical weeding solutions. A lot of those are primarily focused in the European markets. We have not specifically targeted any investments in that space primarily because the productivity of those machines for the customers that we want to serve in our primary markets like the US and Brazil and corn and soybean producers whereas the main lead investment areas for our technologies.

It’s really not hitting the productivity levels that those customers are looking for. So, we’ve really started, we’ve really stayed focused on the CN spray and the machine learning and the cameras and the computing capabilities that deliver on that productivity that those customers are looking for.

So, now let’s move on to automation. I was at a conference somewhere and someone was on their phone and he’s like, “Yeah, I’m farming my field.” And I was like, “Wow, that’s interesting.” So, he was on his phone and could program his tractor. So that’s what you see as the future is farmers can stay home and have a nice dinner and their tractors will just be moving through the fields 24/7?

Yeah, it is  definitely a vision we have for our future and what customers are able to do. You know, if we think about our customers we serve today, labor is becoming a greater challenge for them. Finding qualified labor to do the work and because of that we’ve really made some investments in automation of jobs so that you can put less qualified workers in the cab, but also in fully autonomous solutions.

 And that’s what’s exciting is to see where we’re going with this technology opportunity to really create a whole new opportunity of value for customers. And that’s getting the operator out of the cab over the long haul. Not only are we doing that in our large ag customer space, we’re doing it across the portfolio.

And I don’t know if you saw the most recent consumer electronic show that we participate in where we showcased our focus on autonomous solutions not only for our large ag producers but for orchard and vineyards and for our construction customers. And what the unique opportunity Deere has is we have this centralized tech stack that is developing the capabilities and then we take that and leverage it into the various customer applications.

And so there we had the same technology opportunity move from large ag producer We had the same camera systems and computing capabilities on a small zero turn mower for a commercial landscaper. We had that same technology stacked into an orchard and vineyard application for customers to blast spray or mow through the vineyards and orchards.

And then we had an example of that same technology being applied to earth marine business with dump trucks being autonomously maneuvered through a job site. And so that’s the power I think of what Deere is able to provide is making some investments around one customer segment but then leveraging that across many and creating a whole new stream of value for them.

That’s incredible. So you have the same technology for a lawn mower that you do for a huge combine and then for cutting down trees. And how is that programmed and how do you teach the machine what to look out for or what not to run into where to go? And you’re using satellite imagery or using Blue River technology?

So, we’re using an acquisition that we made back in 2017, Blue River. It is a machine learning capability that combined with the camera system that we’re developing to place on each of the machines, those images that are being captured, we’re really looking at what’s in front and around the machine. And  if we see people or animals, we stop and then determine if the area is now free and then allow the machine to proceed forward. And again, like I talked about in the CNS spray opportunity where we’re educating the algorithms to discern what is weed and what is crop in all of the various crops.

We’re doing the same thing from an autonomy perspective to learn more about what do obstacles look like in a corn field, what do obstacles look like on a golf course, what do obstacles look like on a job site. So that we educate that to understand when those obstacles arise, stop the machine. and then allow it to clear and then allow it to be. And so that’s really the work that we’re doing, not too dissimilar from what automotive industry is doing.

And I think what’s unique is we’re sharing a lot of the same challenges automotive has, but we’re also having additional complexity because we’re doing jobs. We’re not just moving people from point A to point B. We’re out tilling the soil. We’re planting the seed. We’re spraying the crop. We’re  mowing the turf. So we’ve got to also ensure that the job is being done to the level of satisfaction that the customer expects and that’s an additional complexity we have in this whole new autonomous world.

I think that’s just absolutely incredible and I think you’re way more advanced than automated driving because driving you have all these nuances. What does the stop sign look like? What if the stop sign is bent…is it still a stop sign? You have to put so many other inputs into the driving aspect, but you still have a lot of inputs on the farmer.

The difference between a farm and my backyard and the golf course – there’s just a huge variety. So, the technology, did you have to buy or acquire or hire a lot of programmers to do this? I mean, how did you come about just going from making a machine, thinking about a great engine to now programming the machine to do everything that one can do without someone sitting in the cab?

It’s been a journey building the technology capabilities I would say over 20 plus years. It started with initial investment we made in a company called NavCom in 1999 that gave us the global positioning capabilities to drive really basic what we call autotrack and that was just driving the machine straight through the field and reducing the overlap of the implements that increase productivity and then we fast forward to today or in the near term where we talked about the Blue River acquisition in 2017 that gave us machine learning capabilities.

In 2019, we bought a company called Bear Flag that also was working in the autonomy space and in 2020 we purchased a company called Harvest Profit that helps customers identify really their P&L income statements for their operations and that those are some of the basic tenants of  elements of our technology stack in addition to our own development opportunities of us going out and hire ing software engineers to do the work of embedding a lot of the electronic capabilities into the machines.

Building the capability of getting the data from the field into the cloud and then  a team of folks to help us analyze the data and help support customers in decisioning and managing their operations from their phone. And like you mentioned at the very beginning of this question, I’ve been in numerous conferences where the customer I’m talking to will show up with his phone. He’ll say, I’ve got my operations going on. And they’ll open up their operation center and they’ll show me where their tractors are and their combines and what they’re doing. And it’s changing the game for many of our producers that they don’t need to be in the farm every single day. They can do it remotely.

And so it’s really freeing up their time to do other things that are more  productive for them or more value added for them. But it ensures that the job is still getting done. We’ve really, I would say, been on a very long-term journey that we’re accelerating here. within the past five or six years but  and we’ll continue to accelerate that as we see more and more opportunities for customers.

So what are you going to do with artificial intelligence and how are you going to utilize that going forward? I mean you certainly are using it to an extent right now for machine learning and trying to program the machines for today. But what do you do with all the data and how do you do any predictive analysis or where are you taking that?

AI is relatively new and I think companies are trying to figure out exactly how to make the best use of it and what questions to ask and again how to do predictive analysis. We are at the forefront of our artificial intelligence. You know the key opportunities that we see right now is how do we help do the job better.

You know the See & Spray capabilities, the autonomy capabilities, other automation of job steps is another application for us to take advantage of. You know you mentioned about the customer’s data. We’ve been very firm in saying that the data that that we’re collecting is the customer’s data and so they choose who they want to share that data with and we enable that sharing of data to happen but it’s all at the decision of the customers.

where does AI go in agriculture? I think we’re still trying to figure that out. We have an enormous amount of data and insights and so how do we help customers at the end of the day make better decisions in their operations? How do they better optimize their machine performance? We have an enormous amount of data just on the machines themselves. in terms of regular maintenance  engagement with their dealer.

We have data around the execution of the job and ultimately the yields that come out of all of those job steps during the course of a growing season. And so we’re starting to work with customers to say what are you looking for in your future? What are the problems that you’re facing? And how can we work with you with the data to help solve those problems? And I would say we’re at the infancy of that right now, but it’s definitely going to be impactful for customers. And it first starts with building a robust data set that I think we’re uniquely positioned to have to be able to then create those insights for the long term.

I would think it would be helpful when it comes to variant weather patterns, flooding, droughts, you could reprogram or you’d have to reprogram your machine to adhere to very wet circumstances but still get the same yield that you would want to get for just a regular year.

Yeah, it’s interesting. We just were at a recent farm show and using the data in a macro level, we’ve actually been able to help educate customers that if you plant soybeans earlier, it actually has a positive impact on yield and by 5%. And so, and that’s meaningful for producers, especially in today’s environment, that just the day or the planting window that you start  has a meaningful impact on what your actual yield outcome is.

And we’ve done that based on  us looking at the data to say, “Hey, there’s an opportunity here, customer, for you do something different. And that’s one example of how we’re using data to help customers do the job better.

Or if it’s a very wet spring and it’s planting season, maybe you would reconfigure the tractor to plant differently. So, why would a farmer choose John Deere over your competitors? You’ve given us all sorts of advantages, but your competition must be doing some of the same things that you’re doing.

That’s a great question, and I have a great deal of respect for the competitors that we compete with in our industry. You know, we’re all out trying to serve our customers, but I think why the customers choose Deere and I think it’s really a combination of several factors.

One, it’s the quality and the performance of our products that are in the field day in day out. It’s the technology that we have incorporated into those machines. It’s the seamless flow of data into the John Deere operations center that helps them manage their operations more efficiently and effectively. And I think the final piece is really around our dealers and the dealer network that we’ve established around the world is I believe second to none in terms of how we support our customers in the field.

And at the end of the day, we can have all the great technology and we can do all great things, but the machine has got to work in the field. And that’s what our dealers do every day is ensure that the customers have the product and the technology they need to do the job. And they’re there if something happens, they reduce the downtime and ensure that customers are up and running, especially during critical times during the course of the year, planting, harvest, spraying, and customers rely on those dealers. They’re one of their trusted advisers.

So, I think that combination of product, technology, and channel really differentiates Deere in the markets that we serve, and that’s what helps us garner the support from customers, and I’m very thankful for the customers that do business with us.

Is there any question that I didn’t ask you that you would like to answer or leave our listeners with any other key insights?

You know, I say deer’s been around for nearly 200 years. We want to be around for at least another 200 years and we’re going to do that by staying maniacally focused on the customers and how do we continue to reinvent ourselves year-over-year to understand the challenges that customers face.

We’re committed to make the investments necessary to create that value for them. We want to continue to be their trusted partner on this journey of helping them create the value in their operations. We want to do that through the products that we create, the technologies, and the combination of those together supported by our channel that at the end of the day gives them the confidence they need to do out and do the job.

And especially in challenging times, we’re there for them to  help them be more productive and more sustainable for the future. And at the end of the day, we got a growing population to feed and we want we are excited to be a part of that and more importantly to partner with our customers to make that happen.

Well, thank you very much, Aaron, for making the world a better place through our farmers and through sustainability and having everyone have a better yield and enable us to feed a growing population on existing land. We won’t need to put more land under plow because of John Deere.