The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) in late February announced an expected increase in at-home food costs of 3.3 percent for this year. That’s well below the roughly 11 percent hike we saw during the Covid peak.

But 3.3 percent is still well above the less than 2 percent increase in 2024 and the comparable 20-year average of food price increases.

The simple message behind all the numbers: consumers can expect the cost of their food to continue rising. It is in the news everywhere: “Food Prices are Rising Again” at the Wall Street Journal, “Why are food prices still high, five years after COVID?” on Axios, “US Inflation Seen Elevated in February, with higher Food Prices,” at Bloomberg, and “Foods to stock up on before tariffs raise prices again” at the New York Post…everywhere we look, there’s a headline about it.

The message didn’t surprise me as much as start me thinking.

I’ve read report after report from various government agencies and scholarly tomes on why costs have gone up, and even a few marketing reports about altered consumer behaviors.

What about us?

But what about the ordinary everyday food shopper?  What do he and she really think, and how have they responded to the food price inflation and spot shortages and other disruptions along our food chain?

We’ve been fighting this battle since Covid. So the real people I live with have had time to adapt.

How have they changed the way they think about the food they buy, and what they actually do when it comes to selecting the food they serve their families?  Not the cold, sterile language of some government bureaucrat with acres of spreadsheets and mountains of data, or someone in an ivory tower focused on economic theories, or some VP of Marketing in Manhattan with grand plans for profitably accommodating the food-buying masses.

Real, everyday people.

So I started asking my own questions of a random collection of people I encountered in my own food forays. I asked simple questions and then just listened to what an incredible array of different neighbors and strangers had to say – men and (mostly) women, young and old, affluent and the paycheck-to-paycheck set. What I heard was illuminating.

I offer my observations from this effort for whatever you choose to make of it. I don’t pretend it is a comprehensive, serious academic exercise, or to boast a sample size that can be defended as statistically valid.

It’s what real people of all stripes had to say about how they go about buying the food their families need, from one miniscule slice of the Great American Public here in the mid-South.

But maybe you can see something of yourself or your community in what these folks had to say. And maybe Dirt to Dinner will ask people in other places what they have to say, too.

Q1: How often do you shop for food?

Responses varied widely. Shoppers for families generally said weekly, single consumers said several times per week but not daily.

• I don’t just drop in the store as often as I used to. I go when I need to.
• I go every two weeks. It’s a lot to spend, but that way I can discipline myself more to manage how much I spend. I have a list either written down or in my head and I stick to it.

Q2: How much do you spend on average – each trip, over a week, or a month?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2023 estimated the average consumer spends $6,053 per year on food – or $116.40 per week.

Our responses varied, according to the individual circumstance, but answers of $100 to $200 per week per person were typical.

• It’s just me. But I still seem to spend $100-200 a week.
• I’ve got a hard-working husband and a teen-age boy and girl. Spending $800 or $900 is nothing, and that’s being very, very careful in what I buy.
• I can’t come in here without spending at least $80. and that’s just for a little.
• Depends on how many of my son’s friends he brings home at supper time.
• Oh, I don’t know a specific number. I just know it’s the biggest part of what I have to spend.
• $116? Please tell me where those people live.  

Q3: How much have your food costs changed, especially since COVID? A little, a lot, how would you describe the increase?

Consumers thought less in terms of specific numbers than one big idea: they’ve gone up a lot.  When pressed for a number, most said 20-30 percent, and some as much as 40.

• At least 20-30 percent.
• Forty percent? Maybe more.
• Seems like it’s up at least half since Covid.
• How much? I don’t know. But it’s a lot, I know that.  I see it at the check-out every time I come in here.

Q4: How much has it affected your household budget? Is food taking up a bigger share of what money you have available, or have you cut back on how much you spend on food?

Food has become a larger share of household budgets – sometimes substantially so. Feeding the family remains a priority.

• I’m spending more and more of my budget on food. It’s at least a quarter of it.
• It’s not an option. My boys have to be fed, and they eat a lot.
• We used to buy what we want. Now we buy what we need.
• I try not to think about it. But I know it’s more all the time.

Q5: Has it changed the way you shop – the foods you select, the brands you choose, how if at all?

Rising food costs have prompted a major shift away from spontaneous, impulse buying toward a much more planned and thoughtful approach to shopping.

• Mostly I look for sales. If it’s a good deal, that’s what we eat.
• I look for cheaper or other kinds of meat… a lot more chicken, and maybe hamburger instead of better cuts of beef.
• Meat-free meals? Not with two teen-age boys.
• I go with a lot more of the store brands than I used to.
• If you don’t plan it out, you’re going to spend a lot more. If you don’t plan it out, it’s going to be difficult to stick to any budget.
• If you don’t have a list and stick to it, you’re in trouble.

Q6: What are you doing to stretch your food dollar?

“Shopping smarter” was a universal response, but far from the only one. Cheaper cuts of meat and protein was another.

• I pay attention to the ads. I’ll go to more places to take advantage of sale prices, not just one store.
• I use coupons a lot more than I used to.
• I’ve cut back on things that really aren’t all that important to feeding my family – you know, impulse items like all that stuff at the check-out, and things that I normally don’t buy.
• I’ll still buy the brand names. But they better be on sale.
• I’m buying a lot more in bulk – potatoes, rice, beans, that sort of thing – and doing my own cooking. I’m going back to the Granny way of doing things.

• We eat the left-overs, even if it’s just a little. We waste a lot less food than we used to.
• We always talked about using left-overs. Most often, we would push it in the back of the refrigerator and take it out when it turned green or blue and throw it away. Now we talk a lot less about our good intentions and actually try to do it.
• I’ve got family in Iowa who farm. I have them send me meat. Even with shipping it I come out way ahead… just cut out that guy in the middle.

Q7: Do you expect prices to hold relatively steady, go up or go down in the coming weeks and months?

These consumers are cynical – or conditioned by almost five years of food cost increases.

They seem resigned to costs that will continue to rise – and rise substantially.

• What do you think? Of course they are going to keep going up. Nothing I can do about that.
• All depends on inflation.
• How much more? I bet in three years they are up 30 percent from today.
• Why will they keep going up? I don’t know. They just will. It’s not just food. It’s everything.
• Depends on what Donald Trump does. He said he would bring food prices down. When are we going to see that?

Q8: Who is responsible for the run-up in food prices?

Responses were varied, with “the middleman” earning the most common response.  Farmers got a universal free pass.

• I don’t know any one thing. It’s probably a lot of things.
• Probably the big food manufacturers.
• I know it’s not the farmer. I know farmers, and they aren’t getting rich right now.
• Seems to me like the spirit of greed is alive in the land.
• Anybody who thinks it’s the farmer is just wrong.

Q9: How often do you go out to eat? How much do you spend on food away from home? 

Eating out is still popular, but a lot more thought and planning goes into it.

Rising dining-out costs make it a bigger event than before, and if the cost is too great, people cut back or stay home. 

• We’ll go out on weekends now and then, but not during the week. And we try to leave the kids home when we do. That saves us a lot of money.
• We think about it before we do, and we look at how much it’s likely to cost. If it’s too much, then I just fix food at home.
• Going out is more of a special event for us now. But we still do it. We don’t just get in the car and head out anymore without planning a bit.
• Sometimes you just have to go out. You’re tired or busy or whatever. But you don’t go off the deep end with it, unless it’s a special occasion. And I mean special.
• We still go out once a week or so. But we think about it more. We go to places we know we can bring food home if we don’t eat it all… not the fast-food places anymore. And it’s probably better for us, too.

What did people say?

So what are my headlines from this non-scientific exercise?

• My friend and neighbors think more about what to purchase and plan ahead to make smarter decisions about what to buy. They make food shopping even more thoughtful than before, and they look to avoid impulse buying.
• They adopt a remarkable array of ways to save money and shop smart. Some use coupons aggressively. Shopping the sales at multiple retailers was a frequent practice. Cheaper alternative cuts of meat is a common responses. Buying more food in bulk and more in-home food preparation came up again and again. Growing more food in the home garden also is popular in this part of the world.
• They still go out to eat. It’s a fact of modern life. But they increasingly think about it more, plan ahead and look for good deals. They think about the total cost before hand.
• They focus a lot more on reducing the amount of food they waste. Eating more of their left-overs was an almost universal comment.
• They continue to worry. Maybe it’s the explosion in egg prices that have rocked my area, but the people I spoke with seem resigned to continuing food price increases. Food cost inflation, to them, is the new norm, not an episode.
• They don’t know who to blame. But they definitely don’t blame the farmer or rancher.