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For us to successfully and sustainably feed our global population, the farm and agriculture community must have a good working relationship with governments. They also need the consumer to understand where their food comes from and how it is grown and made. Only then, will farmers be profitable and be able to continue to adopt to a changing climate and exciting new technologies.

First, let’s start with the basics:
You are all one of 600 million farmers in the world, and almost 2 million in the United States. The average farm size is 466 acres. Of course, we hear of the demise of the family farm, but if you look at farmland in 1885, when you first began, total acreage was 354 million, the size of Alaska, and today it is 876 million acres. About the size of Alaska, California, Texas, and Nebraska. 95% are family farms. Each year, on average, one U.S. farm feeds 170 people in the world.

We can appreciate Elon Musk with DOGE, SpaceX, and Tesla. Or Jensen Huang with Nvidia – the scaffolding of AI. But without the basics of food, we would go the way of the Mayan Civilization.

Our history is replete with advances in food production. Beginning with the shift from hunters to gatherers to mass cultivation. But going from chasing animals down with a bow and arrow to driving a John Deere tractor took about 13,000 years. Then, our population was 5 million and today we are 8.2 billion. In the next five years we will add the entire population of the United States to the world. In the next 15 years, we will add three more United States’ population to the world for a total of 9.7 billion people.

What makes this exciting is that the changes in agriculture are moving at the speed of light. In the next 15 years, we will make more advancements in agriculture than we have in the past 13,000 years. We have amazing innovative technology, better inputs, and more responsible production and natural resource management tools.

We also have the moral obligation to keep people and animals alive and healthy by increasing our agricultural production by 50%. We must be even more efficient as demand for food will exceed freshwater supply by 40%.

Today, we grow and produce 3,000 calories for each of the 8.2 billion people around the world. As an aside, on average, we eat 2,000 calories and we throw away the remaining 1,000 calories. I am sure you have heard about food waste.

Population and income levels drive food. Once you begin making more than $3,000 a year, you incorporate more protein into your diet.. Protein, mainly from cows, chickens, pork, all need to be fed – primarily corn and soybeans.

The world produces about 9.9 billion metric tons or primary crops each year. If you were to put all the food we grow on a freight train, it would circle the earth about 50 times.

To feed the growing population, and it’s need for protein, we need between 45 – 55 million metric tonnes a year. Just for fun, we go back to the train. For corn, the train goes from Minneapolis to the North Pole. For soybeans, it goes from Minneapolis to Singapore.

Let’s talk about the role of government: today is food security, tariffs, and biofuels.

The first thing I would like you to remember is the importance of global food security. You will do anything when you and your family are hungry. If you think people will get into fist fights over a tank of gas, just imagine what you might do to make sure your family is fed. If you are a Somalian, you could become a pirate. If you live in Venezuela, where over 87% of the population received some sort of food subsidy, you would turn to crime. The number one cause of hunger around the world is not lack of food, it is civil wars, inter-country conflict, and governmental interference.

Take one of our most favorite foods: chocolate. The U.S. supply chain of $4 billion starts in West Africa where governmental interference has stripped farmers of healthy profits and where child labor is an issue. Now, add on four years of underperforming yields due to weather and climate and it is no surprise that the price of cocoa has gone from 2,000 a ton to a high of 12,000/ton earlier this year. I can assure you that the farmer is not getting even $2,000.. Because of government mismanagement, cocoa is picking up its beans and headed elsewhere, mostly likely Brazil. Of course the recent trade announcement has only created more uncertainly as Ivory Coast and Ghana face 21% and 10% tariffs to export their cocoa to the U.S.

This brings us to the importance of trade.
The U.S. agriculture trade is in a deficit of $37b from a trade surplus of $35b as of 2014. We still export about 20% of our agricultural products. Most of that is big ag: corn, soybeans, canola, cotton.. For every $1.00 of ag exports, we have $2.00 of domestic economic activity. What happened to our agriculture?

Part of the story is the stronger dollar making imports cheaper. We still make enough calories to feed every American, but we are importing more products such as tropical fruits, coffee, and cocoa that we don’t produce here. For instance, bananas our our number one import. We like international variety in our imported beer and wine: think Corona Beer and European vineyards. And because our labor costs are higher than other countries, we are importing more vegetables and processed foods that we could profitably make here.

Without fair trade, U.S. farmers are under economic stress. There is a global surplus of soybeans and corn, futures are down, and the uncertainty of Trump’s new tariff policy is foreboding. . Our top trading partners are where the tariffs are going to hurt the most: Canada, Mexico, for imports and China for exports.

Uncertainty is difficult. At what point will the immigration and fentanyl issues be resolved? How long will Trump use tariffs for leverage against Chinese investment in Canada and Mexico?

What impact will retaliatory tariffs have? Particularly with China? US corn and soybeans are export dependent. 51% of our soybeans are exported to China, Argentina, Japan, Mexico and Spain. Think about that, half of our soybean crop is part of the tariff war.

Brazil is our number one competitor and together we supply over 80% of global soybeans for animal feed and cooking oil. Tariff wars cause us to lose market share. After the US-China trade war in 2017, the US market share of soybeans to China went from about 45% to 20% whereas Brazil’s is now 70%.

With Corn, 30% is exported in the form Mexico, Japan, China, Columbia, and Canada.

Besides trade, how did we get to this global surplus? All roads lead to oil.

Since the oil shocks and the environmental awakening of the 1970s, we have seen steady growth and farmer dependence on ethanol and other biofuels. Today about 40% of our corn crop is used for ethanol and 45% of soybean oil is used for biofuels.

Biofuels are one of the reasons of our oversupply. Since the 70s, farmers have added yield and acreage to accommodate the fuel and food needs of our country and the world. Biofuels are critical for farmer profitability. Breakeven for corn is around $5.25 bushel, today’s price is 4.68/bu. For soybean breakeven is about $12.50 bushel, today, we are at $9.97/bu. You can see the immediate effect of tariffs and biofuel uncertainty and record global stocks.

The Trump 2.0 Administration is more favorable, toward biofuels than his first administration. On his first day, he released the American Energy policy that ‘unleashes America’s affordable and reliable energy.” The U.S. leads the world in biofuel production. Back to the train, each year, this train would go half-way around the Earth’s circumference.

As I mentioned earlier, food consumption is expected to increase – and so is global energy. It is anticipated to increase by about 24% over the next 15 years. Demand for AI data centers and electric vehicles are certainly part of it but the bulk will be rising demand in and China (depending on how they handle the tariffs), SE Asia, India, and S.America. Are biofuels part of the conversation?

One positive piece of news is the coalition between big energy and big ag working together to push the EPA to increase the biofuel mandate. The conversation around energy will be interesting in the coming days or months given OPEC might reduce production by 400,000 barrels a day.

The question for farmers, is , Will there be a subsidy? The Inflation Reduction Act, while overall controversial, did have a $1.25 credit for biofuel production. Trump also gave farmers $28 billion to offset the China trade war of 2017. There is talk today of giving farmer’s tariff funds to offset any additional China import issues.

What is the answer for farmers? Tariffs and biofuels policies are a challenge at the moment. But the anticipated global growth can balance this out. Of course, there will always be weather disruptions. No one, with any pride, likes a handout. We are in a unique economic time – and not just for agriculture. It is an interesting situation for sure

As I mentioned, food unites all of us. Growing food sustainably is important.

There is a lot of emphasis on regenerative agriculture. Keeping your soil healthy, enhancing your crop nutrients, not letting water run off your fields and increasing your yield – is no easy feat. It can mean. no-till farming and cover crops which in turn means healthier soil and less synthetic inputs. The beauty of regenerative agriculture is that it can be uniquely applied to each farmer, location, weather pattern, and differentiated crops.

General Mills, Pepsi, Unilever, Walmart, Danone, Nestle are just a few CPG companies that have committed to sourcing ingredients from regenerative ag. Cargill, and, I don’t like to admit, ADM also, and other buyers partner with farmers to help them make the financial commitment for regen ag.

Now comes the exciting technology: Precision Agriculture uses technology to manage farms more efficiently by using real time data to make informed and immediate decisions about where to apply fertilizer, pesticides, water, and seeds on distinct parts of the field.

John Deere is solving both the agricultural labor issue and addressing sustainability. I was speaking with Aaron Wetzel, VP of Production & Precision Ag Production systems at John Deere. They have asked themselves, ‘How do we best help our customers be more successful?” The answer? Technology. They are not just a tractor company anymore. A few years ago, they paid hundreds of millions of dollars to hire just 65 software engineers from Silicon Valley. Their investment has paid off. It is not easy to remake yourself from a plow to a software company after 180 years

They have See and Spray technology on their tractors which enables each spray nozzle to recognize a weed, spray it, all without herbicide drifting to nearby plants. Their farmers have reduced their chemical inputs by 60%. For more on John Deere, I am putting a plug in for a Dirt to Dinner podcast I did with Aaron.

John Deere Isn’t the only one on the field. AGCO, Trimble, CASE, and DJI Agriculture are just a few at the forefront of this revolution, developing integrated solutions that combine advanced software platforms with sophisticated machinery.

I see the future, and it is robotics. The autonomous tractors are the real revolution. Basically, these are just gigantic robots moving down the field. The John Deere tractors can till, plant seeds, and harvest on their own. They have 16 cameras for a 360-degree view, powered by 2 NVidia chips. Farmers can precisely farm from the dinner table, from a conference, reducing labor, inputs, and of course, increasing yield.

These autonomous machines rely on inputs such as cameras, light radar, satellites, density altitude, and other environmental sensors. They learn, make spot decisions, and then move some type of actuator like a wheel, a sprayer, an arm, or any part of a robot. This information goes into the cloud to help train other machines. But not just like machines. A John Deere combine can train a John Deere lawn mower or a construction vehicle.

What used to take days and lots of labor to harvest anything from lettuce to Brussels sprouts, now can take only minutes. Machines are not just more efficient; they have an autonomous life of their own. Greenfield robotics is an AI powered robot pulling weeds all day and all night. No herbicide and no labor needed. Farm-ng has an automated robot that can tailor seeding, weeding, and compost spreading to a specific crop. It can cut down weekly labor by 50-80%. Robotics Plus, purchased by Yamaha Motor, combines data analytics and automation in the field to produce growing insights for farmers.

Who would have thought that agriculture would be the forefront of physical AI.

These machines are not just on the field. I think of the ‘factory of the future’ where labor is needed for dangerous jobs, heavy lifting, or monotonous tasks such as packing fruit. I have seen entire sections of processing plants, that used to have 50 people, are incredibly productive without a human in sight. That is the future of agriculture – and many other industries.

To be honest, no one is ordering a brand new autonomous John Deere tractor if their corn and soy is underwater. I mentioned the importance of government policy. I mentioned that the way we are farming is changing at the speed of light. What is equally important is consumer education.

Misinformed people make bad decisions – about their diets and ultimately the health and well-being of their families. They support quick fixes to complex problems – and risk undoing much of the incredibly productive, efficient food system that we have today. I honestly think people think we should deliver our eggs via bicycles and cook with beef tallow.

I will do a speed finish with just a few examples of misinformation:

• GMOs let the world meet its food needs, sustainably. There are no health issues to humans, soil, or water with GMOs. Which leads to glyphosate.
• Roundup Ready, if used correctly, in your backyard or on the farm field is safe for humans, water, and soil. Regenerative agriculture works the best with genetically modified crops to be resistant to glyphosate.
• Oilseeds, canola, soy, corn, and palm are fine to cook with. It is all about the smoke point, not the oil ingredients
• Organic still has chemicals. They are just ‘natural’.
• You must eat a bathtub full of red M&Ms every day in order to be negatively impacted from the red dye.
• Processed food is not terrible if you eat it as a treat and not depend on it as a food.
• Eggs are one of the best whole nutritious foods.

As a farmer, or investor in farmland, you are the ones who feed us every day. Successful agricultural profits, like most other businesses, with less regulation, fair trade policies, and educated consumer choices. There is not one country in the world that doesn’t rely on imports or exports for food and agriculture. The U.S. has built the best food system the world has ever seen by embracing change and making it work for us, not against us.